Can we forecast farmers’ yields? The relationships between rainfall variability, farmers’ expectations, and actual yields in a tropical dryland

Zhenzhong Zeng, Princeton University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States, Di Tian, Auburn University, Department of Crop, Soil & Environmental Sciences, Auburn, United States, Lyndon D Estes, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, Tom P Evans, Indiana University Bloomington, Center for the Study of Institutions, Populations, and Environmental Change (CIPEC) and Department of Geography, Bloomington, IN, United States, Eric F Wood, Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States and Kelly K Caylor, University of California Santa Barbara, Department of Geography, Santa Barbara, CA, United States