A42E:
Dynamics, Observations, and Predictability in Light of the Recent 2015–2016 El Niño Event IV

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Session ID#: 16184

Session Description:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which arises from tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions, is the world's dominant climate signal on seasonal-to-interannual timescales. Despite progress in understanding its dynamics, ENSO still manages to surprise us. Examples include the curious case of the much weaker than expected 2014/15 El Niño, and the extreme (by some measures) 2015/16 El Niño. The international community is also actively engaged in redesigning the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS2020), as well as deepening the understanding of ENSO through numerical sensitivity experiments and multi-model inter comparisons (e.g. CMIP5/CMIP6)  -- in hopes of improving both seasonal predictions and decadal-to-centennial projections of the phenomenon. This session welcomes contributions on all aspects of ENSO, including dynamics, observations, impacts, predictability, climate model simulations and forecasts, paleo variability, and possible future changes.
Primary Convener:  Malte F Stuecker, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, United States
Conveners:  Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States, Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States and Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States
Chairs:  Malte F Stuecker, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, United States and Christina Karamperidou, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, HI, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States
Index Terms:

3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3373 Tropical dynamics [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Sustaining a Moored Ocean Observing System in the Tropical Pacific: The Evolution of the TAO Array (176462)
Karen Grissom1, William S. Kessler2 and Shannon McArthur1, (1)National Data Buoy Center, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (2)NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Factors influencing the skill of synthesised satellite wind products in the tropical Pacific (140219)
Dr. Shayne McGregor, Monash University, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, Alexander Sen Gupta, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Dietmar Dommenget, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, Tony Lee, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, Michael J McPhaden, NOAA Seattle, Seattle, WA, United States and William S. Kessler, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Robust evidence for forced changes in ENSO: from the mid-Holocene to the 21st century (177276)
Pamela R Grothe1, Kim M Cobb2, Giovanni Liguori2, Emanuele Di Lorenzo3, Antonietta Capotondi4, Hai Cheng5, R. Lawrence Edwards6, Guaciara Santos7, John Richard Southon8, Daniel Deocampo9, Jean Lynch-Stieglitz10, Tianran Chen11, Hussein R Sayani12, Kayla J Townsend11, Lauren T Toth13, Melat M Hagos11, Gemma O'Connor11, Diane M Thompson14 and Yanbin Lu15, (1)University of Mary Washington, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Fredericksburg, United States, (2)Georgia Institute of Technology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, (3)Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Program in Ocean Science & Engineering, Atlanta, GA, United States, (4)University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States, (5)Xi'an Jiaotong University, Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xian, China, (6)University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States, (7)University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States, (8)University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, United States, (9)Georgia State University, Department of Geosciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, (10)Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States, (11)Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, (12)Georgia Institute of Technology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, United States, (13)USGS Coastal and Marine Science Center St. Petersburg, St Petersburg, FL, United States, (14)Boston University, Earth & Environment, Boston, MA, United States, (15)University of Minnesota, Department of Earth Sciences, Minneapolis, MN, United States
The Role of the Hydrological Cycle in ENSO Atmospheric Feedbacks. (173455)
Samantha Ferrett, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4, United Kingdom, Matthew Collins, University of Exeter, CEMPS, Exeter, EX4, United Kingdom and Hong-Li Ren, CMA China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Inter-model Diversity of ENSO simulation and its relation to basic states (128358)
Jong-Seong Kug, POSTECH, Pohang, South Korea and Yoo-Geun Ham, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS) causing a La Niña-like mean-state response to global warming (125221)
Tsubasa Kohyama, Department of Information Sciences, Ochanomizu University, Tokyo, Japan and Dennis L Hartmann, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
ENSO-related tropical precipitation change under idealised global warming. (124729)
Alexander Todd, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4, United Kingdom, Matthew Collins, University of Exeter, CEMPS, Exeter, EX4, United Kingdom and Robin Chadwick, Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Future Changes to ENSO Temperature and Precipitation Teleconnections Under Warming (146585)
Sarah Perry1, Dr. Shayne McGregor2, Alexander Sen Gupta3 and Matthew H England1, (1)University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (2)Monash University, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, (3)ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW, Australia

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