GC21E:
Interpretation and Uncertainty in Climate, Earth System, Integrated Assessment, and Impact Models and Observations II Posters

Submit an Abstract to this Session



Session ID#: 24664

Session Description:
Interpreting climate simulations, associated observational data, and assessing their uncertainties are essential to understanding changes in atmospheric, land, oceanic, and socio-economic systems and processes. Quantified uncertainty is needed to identify human-induced causes of climate change, to attribute the occurrence of extreme weather events to anthropogenic factors as well as to predict the impact of the evolving polar climate. We seek contributions in model interpretation, evaluation of models against observations, as well as studies that identify, quantify, or interpret uncertainty in climate models and/or observations. Contributions may address models and observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales. We welcome all studies that use these models in forecasting, sensitivity analyses, data assimilation and statistical inverse problems.
Primary Convener:  Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States
Conveners:  Maoyi Huang, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Richland, WA, United States, Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States and Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States
Chairs:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States, Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States and Maoyi Huang, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • EP - Earth and Planetary Surface Processes
  • PP - Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Probabilistic Estimates of Climate Impacts of the Paris Agreement and Contributions from Different Countries. (214488)
Andrei P Sokolov, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, United States, Sergey Paltsev, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy, Cambridge, United States, Y.H. Henry Chen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Chang, Cambridge, MA, United States, Erwan Monier, University of California Davis, Land, Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA, United States, Alex G Libardoni, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Meteorology, University Park, PA, United States and Chris E Forest, The Pennsylvania State University, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, United States
Implications of Uncertainty in Fossil Fuel Emissions for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling (243905)
Anthony W King1, Daniel M Ricciuto2, Jiafu Mao2 and Robert J Andres3, (1)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (3)Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired), Oak Ridge, TN, United States
Deep uncertainty and broad heterogeneity in country-level social cost of carbon (281246)
Katharine Ricke, University of California San Diego, School of Global Policy and Strategy, La Jolla, CA, United States, Laurent Drouet, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Milan, Italy, Ken Caldeira, Gates Ventures, Kirkland, United States and Massimo Tavoni, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Naples, Italy
Exploring Land Use and Land Cover Change and Feedbacks in the Global Change Assessment Model (284206)
Min Chen1, Chris R Vernon2, Maoyi Huang3, Katherine V Calvin4, Yannick Le Page5 and Ian Kraucunas3, (1)University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, Madison, WI, United States, (2)Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (4)Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States, (5)Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia. Universidade de Lisboa, Department Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
Multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for computationally expensive models (246575)
Jaideep Ray1, Maoyi Huang2, Huiying Ren2, Zhangshuan Hou2 and Jie Bao2, (1)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Parameter uncertainty in simulations of extreme precipitation and attribution studies. (298909)
Ben Timmermans, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, William Drew Collins, Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, Berkeley, United States, Travis Allen O'Brien, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, United States and Mark Daniel Risser, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Berkeley, CA, United States
An 'Observational Large Ensemble' to compare observed and modeled temperature trend uncertainty due to internal variability. (253375)
Andrew N Poppick, Carleton College, Mathematics and Statistics, Northfield, MN, United States, Karen A McKinnon, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, United States and Clara Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Global Mean Temperature Timeseries Projections from GCMs: The Implications of Rebasing (229235)
David Alan Stainforth, London School of Economics, Grantham Research Institute, London, United Kingdom; University of Warwick, Physics, Coventry, United Kingdom, Sandra C Chapman, University of Warwick, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, Coventry, CV4, United Kingdom and Nicholas Wynn Watkins, London School of Economics, CATS, London, United Kingdom
Efficient design based on perturbed parameter ensembles to identify plausible and diverse variants of a model for climate change projections (264921)
Ambarish Karmalkar1, David Sexton2 and James Murphy2, (1)University of Rhode Island, Department of Geoscience, Narragansett, RI, United States, (2)Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter, United Kingdom
The contribution of natural variability to GCM bias: Can we effectively bias-correct climate projections? (263913)
Stephanie A McAfee, USGS Southwest climate adaptation science center, Reno, United States and Andrew DeLaFrance, University of Nevada Reno, Reno, NV, United States
Uncertainty in Earth System Models: Benchmarks for Ocean Model Performance and Validation (294327)
Oluwaseun O Ogunro, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, Scott Elliott, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, Nathan Collier, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Computational Sciences & Engineering Division, Oak Ridge, United States, Oliver W Wingenter, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM, United States, Clara Deal, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Weiwei Fu, University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States and Dr. Forrest M Hoffman, PhD, Computational Earth Sciences Group and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, United States
Examining the Stationarity Assumption for Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections of Precipitation (244745)
Adrienne Wootten, South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Norman, United States, Keith W Dixon, NOAA, Princeton, United States, John R Lanzante, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States and Renee A McPherson, University of Oklahoma, South Central Climate Adaption Science Center, Norman, United States
Pareto-optimal estimates that constrain mean California precipitation change (227480)
Baird Langenbrunner1,2 and J David Neelin1, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)University of California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States
Reconstruction of regional mean temperature for East Asia since 1900s and its uncertainties (216882)
Wei Hua, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China
Role of Internal Variability in Surface Temperature and Precipitation Change Uncertainties over India. (216418)
Ram Singh, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States and Krishna M Achutarao, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India
Uncertainty Quantification and Regional Sensitivity Analysis of Snow-related Parameters in the Canadian LAnd Surface Scheme (CLASS) (281132)
Bakr Badawy and Christopher G Fletcher, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Sensitivity Analysis Reveals Critical Factors that Affect Wetland Methane Emissions using Soil Biogeochemistry Model (278330)
Carla Alonso-Contes1, Stefan Gerber1, Nikolay Bliznyuk2 and Isaac Duerr3, (1)University of Florida, Ft Walton Beach, FL, United States, (2)University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States, (3)University of Florida, Gainesville, United States

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