GC047:
Interpretation and Uncertainty in Climate, Earth System, Integrated Assessment, and Impact Models and Observations





Session ID#: 24664

Session Description:
Interpreting climate simulations, associated observational data, and assessing their uncertainties are essential to understanding changes in atmospheric, land, oceanic, and socio-economic systems and processes. Quantified uncertainty is needed to identify human-induced causes of climate change, to attribute the occurrence of extreme weather events to anthropogenic factors as well as to predict the impact of the evolving polar climate. We seekĀ contributions in model interpretation, evaluation of models againstĀ observations, as well as studies that identify, quantify, orĀ interpret uncertainty in climate models and/or observations. Contributions may address models and observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales. We welcome all studies that use these models in forecasting, sensitivity analyses, data assimilation and statistical inverse problems.
Primary Convener:  Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States
Conveners:  Maoyi Huang, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Richland, WA, United States, Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States and Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • EP - Earth and Planetary Surface Processes
  • PP - Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Mi Yan1, Bin Wang2, Jian Liu3 and Liang Ning3, (1)Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China, (2)NUIST Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing, China, (3)Nanjing Normal University, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing, China
Andrei P Sokolov1, Sergey Paltsev1, Y.H. Henry Chen2, Erwan Monier3, Alex G Libardoni4 and Chris E Forest5, (1)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, United States, (2)assachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Chang, Cambridge, MA, United States, (3)MIT, Center for Global Change Science, Cambridge, MA, United States, (4)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Meteorology, University Park, PA, United States, (5)Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA, United States
Ram Singh, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India and Krishna M Achutarao, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, 110, India
Wei Hua, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China
Li Wu1, Tao Zhang1,2, Yi Qin3, Yanluan Lin4, Wei Xue1, Minghua Zhang5 and Brookhaven National Laboratory, New York, 11973, USA,;Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Department for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, (1)Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, (2)Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, United States, (3)Center for Earth System Science,Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, (4)Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, (5)SUNY Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY, United States
Amy J Braverman, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, United States, Megan Heyman, Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, Terre Haute, IN, United States and Noel Cressie, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
Baird Langenbrunner1,2 and J David Neelin1, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
David Alan Stainforth, London School of Economics, GRI and CATS, London, United Kingdom; University of Warwick, Physics, Coventry, United Kingdom, Sandra C Chapman, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, Coventry, United Kingdom and Nicholas Wynn Watkins, London School of Economics, CATS, London, United Kingdom
Bastiaan Johannes van Ruijven, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Enrica De Cian, FEEM, Venice, Italy and Ian Sue Wing, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States
William Justin Ritchie and Hadi Dowlatabadi, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Jenita Gautam, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States
Anthony W King1, Daniel M Ricciuto1, Jiafu Mao1 and Robert J Andres2, (1)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired), Oak Ridge, TN, United States
Adrienne Wootten1, Keith W Dixon2, John R Lanzante2 and Renee A Mcpherson3, (1)University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Norman, OK, United States, (2)NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States
Jaideep Ray1, Maoyi Huang2, Huiying Ren2, Zhangshuan Hou3 and Jie Bao4, (1)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (3)Pac NW Nat'l Lab-Hydrology, Richland, WA, United States, (4)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Experimental and Computational Engineering Group, Richland, WA, United States
Andrew N Poppick1, Karen A McKinnon2, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin3 and Clara Deser2, (1)Carleton College, Mathematics and Statistics, Northfield, MN, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States
Hui Wan1, Xiu Yang1, Alexandre M Tartakovsky1, Philip J Rasch2, Huiying Ren1, Zhangshuan Hou3 and Yun Qian4, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Lab, Richland, WA, United States, (3)Pac NW Nat'l Lab-Hydrology, Richland, WA, United States, (4)PNNL / Climate Physics, Richland, WA, United States
Michael Goldsby, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States and Greg Lusk, University of Chicago, Philosophy, Chicago, IL, United States
Stephanie A McAfee and Andrew DeLaFrance, University of Nevada Reno, Reno, NV, United States
Ambarish Karmalkar, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States, David Sexton, Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom and James Murphy, Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Benjamin M Sanderson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Carla Alonso-Contes1, Stefan Gerber1, Nikolay Bliznyuk2 and Isaac Duerr3, (1)University of Florida, Ft Walton Beach, FL, United States, (2)University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States, (3)University of Florida, Gainesville, United States
Bakr Badawy and Christopher G Fletcher, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Katharine Ricke, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, Laurent Drouet, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Milan, Italy, Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA, United States and Massimo Tavoni, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Naples, Italy
Min Chen1, Chris R Vernon2, Maoyi Huang3, Katherine V Calvin4, Yannick Le Page5 and Ian Kraucunas3, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Lab, Richland, WA, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (4)Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States, (5)Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia. Universidade de Lisboa, Department Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
Benjamin D Santer, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
Oluwaseun O Ogunro1, Scott Elliott2, Nathan Collier1, Oliver W Wingenter3, Clara Deal4, Weiwei Fu5 and Forrest M. Hoffman6, (1)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (2)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (3)New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM, United States, (4)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (5)University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States, (6)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
Nicole Schlegel1, Helene L Seroussi2, Carmen Boening3, Eric Y Larour2, Daniel Limonadi1, Michael Schodlok2 and Michael M Watkins1, (1)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (3)Jet Propulsion Lab, Pasadena, CA, United States
Rachel Rose McCrary, National Center for Atmospheric Research, CISL/IMAGe/RISC, Boulder, CO, United States and Linda Mearns, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States
Ben Timmermans1, William Drew Collins2, Travis Allen O'Brien3 and Mark Daniel Risser1, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, (3)Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States