GC41A:
Climate Variability and Change on Decadal to Multidecadal Timescales III Posters

Submit an Abstract to this Session



Session ID#: 25916

Session Description:
Uncertainty in the trajectory of global mean surface temperature in the coming several decades due to internal climate variability is higher than the uncertainty from emissions scenarios. This has placed decadal climate variability and prediction firmly in the spotlight. It is crucial that we observe, model and predict the climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales and better understand the roles of internal and external climate forcing.

However, our understanding of decadal to multi-decadal climate variability is limited by short and sparse observational records, differences in models, discrepancies between palaeoclimate reconstructions, and dynamical theories that have, at best, only partial scientific consensus. A complete understanding of decadal scale variability is likely to come from advances across atmospheric science, oceanography and palaeoclimatology. 

This interdisciplinary session will bring together our latest understanding of decadal to multi-decadal climate variability and will discuss recent advances in understanding mechanisms, patterns, impacts and predictability on decadal timescales.

Primary Convener:  Benjamin Henley, University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Convener:  Christopher Kenneth Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Chairs:  Christopher Kenneth Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom and Benjamin Henley, University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Parkville, VIC, Australia
OSPA Liaison:  Christopher Kenneth Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
  • PP - Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Index Terms:

3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4513 Decadal ocean variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Early 20th Century Arctic Warming Intensified by Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (298561)
Hiroki Tokinaga, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, Shang-Ping Xie, UCSD, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States and Hitoshi Mukougawa, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan
Impact of natural variability on the perception of climate change for the upcoming decades: Analysis of the CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE large ensembles (242455)
Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, Marco Braun and Diane Chaumont, Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada
Characterizing the Seasonality and Spatiotemporal Evolution of the U.S. Warming Hole (253179)
Trevor Partridge1, Jonathan Winter2, Erich C Osterberg3, Frank J Magilligan4, David W Hyndman5 and Anthony D Kendall5, (1)Dartmouth College, Department of Earth Sciences, Hanover, NH, United States, (2)Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, NH, United States, (3)Dartmouth College, Department of Earth Sciences, Hanover, United States, (4)Dartmouth College, Geography, Hanover, NH, United States, (5)Michigan State University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States
Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall (238573)
Sebastian Milinski1,2, Juergen Bader3,4, Johann H Jungclaus1 and Jochem Marotzke5, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (2)International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany, (3)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The Land in the Earth System, Hamburg, Germany, (4)Uni Climate, Uni Research and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, (5)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The Ocean in the Earth System, Hamburg, Germany
Examining Diurnal Variability across the Equatorial Pacific Basin associated with ENSO (298469)
Tony Hurt Jr, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States, Naoko Sakeada, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY, United States, Juliana Dias, NOAA, Boulder, United States and George N Kiladis, NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States
Tropical rainforests dominate multi-decadal variability of the global carbon cycle (267677)
Xuanze Zhang1, Yingping Wang2, Shushi Peng1, Peter J Rayner3, Jeremy Silver4, Philippe Ciais5, Shilong Piao1, Zaichun Zhu6, Xingjie Lu7 and Xiaogu Zheng8, (1)Peking University, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Beijing, China, (2)CSIRO Ocean and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia, (3)The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia, (4)School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia, (5)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France, (6)Boston University, Allston, MA, United States, (7)Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, United States, (8)Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

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