GC51H:
The Rocky Road to 1.5 Degrees: (Re)evaluating the Paris Targets I

Submit an Abstract to this Session



Session ID#: 32627

Session Description:
Two years after COP21, many things have evolved. The Paris agreement entered into force, the IPCC took up the task of a special assessment report on the 1.5 degree C warming level for which the research community has run simulations, studied projections and impacts and evaluated current commitments in the context of identified mitigation requirements. Meanwhile, the commitment of the world’s second major emitter to its mitigation targets is being debated, calling into question the robustness of the agreement as a whole.

We seek contributions spanning this wide range of aspects, in the hope of creating a wide and rich perspective on the low temperature target commitments. We encourage studies on impacts and avoided impacts, mitigation requirements, and the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 or 2 degree C temperature goals in the light of societal or technological obstacles.

Primary Convener:  Benjamin M Sanderson, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Convener:  Claudia Tebaldi, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States
Chairs:  Benjamin M Sanderson, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway and Claudia Tebaldi, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Claudia Tebaldi, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States
Index Terms:

1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
6304 Benefit-cost analysis [POLICY SCIENCES]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

When will we be committed to crossing 1.5 and 2 °C temperature thresholds? (277714)
Kyle Armour, University of Washington, Deptartment of Atmospheric and Climate Science, Seattle, United States, Cristian Proistosescu, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Department of Climate, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, United States, Gerard Roe, University of Washington, Seattle, United States and Peter J Huybers, Harvard University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, MA, United States
Importance of the Pre-Industrial Baseline in Determining the Likelihood of Exceeding the Paris Limits (219172)
Michael E Mann, Pennsylvania State University, Philadelphia, United States, Andrew P Schurer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9, United Kingdom, Ed Hawkins, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom, Simon FB Tett, University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom and Gabriele C Hegerl, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modeled climate change mitigation pathways (225252)
Peter A Turner1, Christopher B Field2, David B Lobell3, Daniel Sanchez1 and Katharine J Mach4, (1)Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford, Stanford, CA, United States, (2)Stanford University, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, United States, (3)Stanford University, Department of Earth System Science & Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford, United States, (4)Stanford University, Stanford Environment Assessment Facility, Stanford, CA, United States
Understanding the Effectiveness of Carbon Dioxide Removal to Reduce the Impacts of Climate Change. (240986)
Vivian Scott1, Simon FB Tett1 and Matthew Brander2, (1)University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, (2)University of Edinburgh, Business School, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in lowering atmospheric CO2 and reversing global warming in the context of 1.5 degrees (290573)
Kirsten Zickfeld and Deven Azevedo, Simon Fraser University, Geography, Burnaby, BC, Canada
On the differences between 1.5oC and 2oC of global warming (Invited) (272911)
Andrew King, University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Coastal flood implications of 1.5◦C, 2◦C and 2.5◦C global mean temperature stabilization targets for small island nations (249824)
DJ Rasmussen1, Maya K Buchanan2, Robert E Kopp3 and Michael Oppenheimer1, (1)Princeton University, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)Rutgers University New Brunswick, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
Changes in extremes due to half a degree warming in observations and models (276039)
Erich M Fischer1, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner2 and Peter Pfleiderer2, (1)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (2)Climate Analytics GmbH, Berlin, Germany
Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming (243827)
Brian C O'Neill1, Brooke Anderson2, Andrew J Monaghan3, Xiaolin Ren3, Ben Sanderson4 and Claudia Tebaldi4, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (3)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States

See more of: Global Environmental Change