H13U:
Weather/Climate Ensembles and Downscaling Methodologies for Hydrologic Prediction Systems: Methods, Process Understanding, Applications, and Verification I Posters


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Session ID#: 52188

Session Description:
Hydrological prediction systems at sub-daily to multi-decadal time scales assist decision making by providing improved information on flooding, droughts, agricultural applications, and climate impact assessments. These prediction systems use downscaled meteorological inputs to improve accuracy and ensembles techniques to better represent meteorological uncertainty produced by global and regional scale numerical weather prediction models. The downscaled and ensemble-based inputs help enhance decision making capabilities and increase modeling fidelity as compared to using global/regional meteorological models directly.  Verification of final products are critical for making the scientific information useful for decision makers.

This session aims to showcase advances in ensemble methods and downscaling of multi-model climate and weather projections and their relevance in improving hydrologic modeling and prediction across spatial and temporal scales. The estimate of hazards based on these modeling and prediction products are welcome.  Groups that use such approaches in risk analysis, flood and drought forecasting, urban hydrology are invited.

Primary Convener:  Firas Saleh, Jupiter, New York City, NY, United States
Conveners:  Elizabeth C Weatherhead, U. Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Zilefac Elvis Asong, Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Primary Liaison:  Zilefac Elvis Asong, Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Chairs:  Firas Saleh, Jupiter, New York City, NY, United States and Zilefac Elvis Asong, Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
OSPA Liaison:  Zilefac Elvis Asong, Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • NS - Near Surface Geophysics
Index Terms:

1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]
4321 Climate impact [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

150-Year CONUS Quasi-Dynamical Downscaling with ICAR (364658)
Trude Eidhammer, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Ethan D Gutmann, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Hydrometeorological Applications Program, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Joseph Hamman, CarbonPlan, Seattle, United States, Martyn P Clark, University of Calgary, Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, Calgary, AB, Canada, Dr. Jeffrey Richard Arnold, US Army Engineer Responses to Climate Change Program, Seattle, United States, Levi D Brekke, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, United States, Kenneth Nowak, Bureau of Reclamation, Research and Development Office, Denver, CO, United States and Roy Rasmussen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, United States
Calibration of ECMWF Precipitation Forecasts in a Dual Resolution Ensemble (377870)
Florian Pappenberger1, Estíbaliz Gascón2, David Lavers3, David S Richardson4, Thomas Hamill5, Martin Leutbecher6, Zied Ben Bouallegue3, Toni Jurlina1 and Christel Prudhomme3, (1)European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, (2)European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Bonn, Germany, (3)European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, (4)ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, (5)NOAA Boulder, ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Climate Projections and Drought: Verification for the Colorado River Basin (344019)
Noe Isaac Santos, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction, Las Vegas, NV, United States; Bureau of Reclamation, Boulder Canyon Operations Office, Boulder City, NV, United States, Thomas C. Piechota, Chapman University, Orange, CA, United States, William P Miller, NOAA Salt Lake City, Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, Salt Lake City, UT, United States and Sajjad Ahmad, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction, Las Vegas, United States
Development of a bias adjustment method for large ensemble experiment and hydrological applications (431543)
Satoshi Watanabe, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, Hyungjun Kim, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan and Nobuyuki Utsumi, Kyoto University of Advanced Science, Kyoto, Japan
Downscaling of Soil Moisture using Time-Varying Downscaling Model (368600)
Subbarao Pichuka, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India and Rajib Maity, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Department of Civil Engineering., Kharagpur, India
Evaluating Impact of Differential Climate Change in California through a Spatially and Temporally Disaggregated Weather Generator (455610)
Hassaan Furqan Khan, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, Sungwook Wi, University of Massachusetts, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Amherst, United States and Casey Brown, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Amherst, United States
Evaluating NASA’s GEOS-5 S2S Versions for Drought Forecasting in Africa (414637)
Abheera Hazra, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, HSL, College PARK, MD, United States, Kristi R Arsenault, SAIC, Greenbelt, United States, Shraddhanand Shukla, University of California Santa Barbara, Climate Hazards Center, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, United States, Sujay V Kumar, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Christa D Peters-Lidard, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, United States, Randal D Koster, NASA Goddard SFC, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States and Amy McNally, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States
Evaluation of downscaled GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts used to improve hydrologic forecasting in the United States (400634)
Ryan Zamora1, Ben M Zaitchik1, Matthew Rodell2, Augusto Getirana3, Sujay V Kumar3 and Kristi R Arsenault4, (1)Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States, (2)NASA GSFC HSL, Greenbelt, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)SAIC, Greenbelt, United States
High-resolution statistically downscaled climate and hydrology projections over Alaska (403951)
Naoki Mizukami, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Hydrometeorological Applications Program, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Andrew James Newman, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Joseph Hamman, CarbonPlan, Seattle, United States, Andrew W Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Ethan D Gutmann, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Hydrometeorological Applications Program, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Diana R Gergel, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, Martyn P Clark, University of Calgary, Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, Calgary, AB, Canada, Bart Nijssen, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seattle, WA, United States and Dr. Jeffrey Richard Arnold, US Army Engineer Responses to Climate Change Program, Seattle, United States
Performance of statistical and dynamical downscaling approaches for the analysis of convective storms over the Midwest and Great Lakes region (423468)
Kyuhyun Byun and Alan F Hamlet, University of Notre Dame, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering & Earth Sciences, Notre Dame, IN, United States
Seasonal to Sub-Daily Extreme Rainfall Forecasting: Linking Seasonal Teleconnection to Multiscale Downscaling of Rainfall (361757)
Yong Tak Kim, Chonbuk National University, Department of Civil Engineering, Jeonju, Korea, Republic of (South) and Hyun-han Kwon, Chonbuk National University, Jeonju, Korea, Republic of (South)
Sources of uncertainty in the chain-of-models approach for projecting climate change impacts on water resource systems: development and analysis of a large ensemble of hydrologic climate projections (Invited) (364135)
Joseph Hamman, Earthmover, Seattle, United States, Ethan D Gutmann, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Hydrometeorological Applications Program, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Martyn P Clark, University of Calgary, Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, Calgary, AB, Canada, Naoki Mizukami, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Trude Eidhammer, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
To What Extent Does High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Improve Seasonal Forecasts over the Ethiopian Highlands? (464273)
Hamada S Badr1, Benjamin F Zaitchik1, Kristi R Arsenault2, Shraddhanand Shukla3 and Christa D Peters-Lidard4, (1)Johns Hopkins University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Baltimore, MD, United States, (2)SAIC, Greenbelt, United States, (3)University of California Santa Barbara, Climate Hazards Center, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, United States, (4)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, United States
Using a Statistical Pre-Analysis Approach as an Ensemble Technique for the Unbiased Mapping of GCM Changes to Local Stations (400979)
Cristian Chadwick, Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservación de la Naturaleza, Santiago, Chile, Jorge A Gironas, Universidad Catolica, Santiago, Macul, Chile, Sebastian Vicuna, Centro de Cambio Global UC, Santiago, Chile, Francisco Meza, Centro de Cambio Global. Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile and James P McPhee, Universidad de Chile, Department of Civil Engineering, Santiago, Chile
Revealing and Assessing Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction Method Uncertainties (Invited) (397958)
Keith W Dixon, NOAA, Princeton, United States, Dennis Adams-Smith, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and John R Lanzante, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States

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