GC43J:
Interpreting Uncertainty in Climate Models, Observations, and Large Data Sets to Better Inform Scientific Understanding in Geoscience Posters


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 56723

Session Description:
Interpreting climate simulations, associated observational data, and assessing their uncertainties are essential to understanding changes in atmospheric, land, oceanic, and socio-economic systems and processes. Quantified uncertainty is needed to identify human-induced causes of climate change, to attribute the occurrence of extreme weather events to anthropogenic factors as well as to predict the impact of the evolving polar climate. We seek contributions in model interpretation, evaluation of models against observations, as well as studies that identify, quantify, or interpret uncertainty in climate models and/or observations. Contributions may address models and observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales. We welcome all studies in forecasting, sensitivity analyses, data assimilation and statistical inverse problems using climate, Earth system, integrated assessment, and impact assessment models.
Primary Convener:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
Conveners:  Sihan Li, Oxford e-Research Centre, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom, Ambarish Karmalkar, University of Rhode Island, Department of Geoscience, Narragansett, RI, United States and Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States
Primary Liaison:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
Chairs:  Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States, Sihan Li, Oxford e-Research Centre, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom, Linnia Hawkins, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States and Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • IN - Earth and Space Science Informatics
  • NG - Nonlinear Geophysics
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1968 Scientific reasoning/inference [INFORMATICS]
1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]
3275 Uncertainty quantification [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Anthropogenic Forcing Uncertainty and Arctic Temperature Change (369529)
Steven Smith, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States and Kalyn Dorheim, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States
Uncertainty in the Regional Surface Warming under 2oC and 1.5oC Scenarios. (393770)
Andrei P Sokolov, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy, Cambridge, United States, Xiang Gao, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, United States, Jennifer F Morris, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy, Cambridge, MA, United States, Erwan Monier, University of California Davis, Land, Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA, United States, Sergey Paltsev, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy, Cambridge, United States, Alex G Libardoni, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Meteorology, University Park, PA, United States and Chris E Forest, The Pennsylvania State University, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, United States
Quantifying the Uncertainties in an Ensemble of Decadal Climate Predictions (397917)
Golan Bel, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Department of Solar Energy and Environmental Physics, Beer Sheva, Israel and Ehud Strobach, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States
How Ice-Core Data Informs Climate Models: Building a Case for Predictive Historical Science (394517)
Meghan Danielle Page, Loyola University Maryland, Philosophy, Baltimore, MD, United States
Using Machine Learning to Intelligently Select Members of Large Atmospheric Model Ensembles (394668)
Donald D Lucas, Giuliana Pallotta and Matthew D Simpson, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
Assessing the performance of historical climate model forecasts (394956)
Zeke Hausfather, Berkeley Earth, Berkeley, CA, United States, Henri F Drake, University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, United States and Gavin A Schmidt, NASA/GISS, New York, United States
Characterization of Model Variability in CMIP5 (409205)
Adria Schwarber, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, Steven Smith, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States and Corinne Hartin, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States
A Challenge to Seepage in the Global Warming ‘Hiatus’ (398040)
Ryan James O'Loughlin, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States
Perturbed parameters ensembles of idealized experiments to understand the impact of parametric uncertainty on model performance and response to climate change (444008)
Ambarish Karmalkar1, David Sexton2, James Murphy2 and Ben Booth3, (1)University of Rhode Island, Department of Geoscience, Narragansett, RI, United States, (2)Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter, United Kingdom, (3)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Combining perturbed physics ensembles with statistical emulation to explore model process sensitivity and constrain uncertainty in projections (446922)
Philip Mote1, Linnia Hawkins2, David E Rupp3, Sihan Li4, Doug J McNeall5, Sarah Naomi Sparrow4, Richard Arthur Betts5 and David Wallom6, (1)Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Corvallis, OR, United States, (2)Oregon State University, Forest Ecosystems and Society, Corvallis, OR, United States, (3)Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States, (4)Oxford e-Research Centre, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom, (5)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (6)University of Oxford, OeRC, Oxford, United Kingdom
Development of a GCM emulator used in the integrated assessment of climate change policy (429479)
Xuanming Su1, Kaoru Tachiiri1, Katsumasa Tanaka2, Kiyoshi Takahashi3 and Michio Watanabe4, (1)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC) / Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application (CEMA) / Earth System Model Development and Application Group (ESM-DAG), Kanagawa, Japan, (2)NIES National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, (3)NIES National Institute of Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan, (4)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Kanagawa, Japan
Global surface soil moisture dynamics in recent 38 years according to remote sensing observation (366021)
Pan Ning, Shuai Wang and Yanxu Liu, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Model Dependence and Internal Variability in Projected Change of Extreme Precipitation over South America (431597)
Sihan Li1, Luke James Harrington2, Friederike Elly Luise Otto3, Sparrow Sarah1, Karsten Haustein3 and David Wallom4, (1)Oxford e-Research Centre, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom, (2)Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, (3)University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, (4)University of Oxford, OeRC, Oxford, United Kingdom
Addressing SST Uncertainty for Future Precipitation Extremes within the Southeast and Caribbean US at Convective Permitting Scales (378306)
Jared Bowden, North Carolina State University, Applied Ecology, Raleigh, NC, United States, Tanya Spero, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States, Adam J Terando, US Geological Survey, Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Raleigh, United States, Chris G Nolte, US EPA, Rtp, NC, United States and Jaime Collazo, USGS, North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Raleigh, NC, United States
Downscaled Precipitation Sensitivity to Gridded Observation Data and Downscaling Technique (380480)
Adrienne Wootten, South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Norman, United States, Keith W Dixon, NOAA, Princeton, United States, Dennis Adams-Smith, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Renee A McPherson, University of Oklahoma, South Central Climate Adaption Science Center, Norman, United States
Continued mass loss of Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, controlled by fjord water temperature (464220)
Johannes Heinrich Bondzio, University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States, Prof. Mathieu Morlighem, Dartmouth College, Department of Earth Sciences, Hanover, NH, United States, Helene L Seroussi, Dartmouth College, Thayer School of Engineering, Hanover, NH, United States, Mike Wood, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States and Jeremie Mouginot, University of California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States
Understanding Volumetric Glacier Change With ArcticDEM (449275)
Daniel Cisek, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States and David Blauvelt, National Intelligence University, Bethesda, MD, United States

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