OS44A:
Improvements in Synoptic, Subseasonal to Seasonal, and Decadal Projections Through Next-Generation Ocean Model Developments, Observations, and Coupled Data Assimilation I


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 57515

Session Description:
From weather to climate timescales, detailed atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface predictions are critical to socioeconomic planning, mitigation, and emergency response. Earth System Models (ESMs) for synoptic, S2S, and decadal predictions depend on accurate ESM component initialization and accurate representations of critical ocean, sea ice, and wave processes. Higher resolutions and regional/component impacts on predictability complicate these dependencies; emerging high-performance computing (HPC) architectures require new algorithms for efficient system use. Implementing CDA in ESMs and improvements to component models, particularly at high resolution and in regionally refined configurations, represents a grand scientific, algorithmic, and computational challenge. Meeting these challenges efficiently within operational run-time constraints will require restructured ocean and atmosphere models that are performant on new HPC systems. This session seeks submissions discussing: novel theoretical and algorithmic techniques for CDA in ESMs, the use of CDA to understand ESMs biases, novel ocean model discretizations, and parameterizations of multiscale phenomena.
Primary Convener:  Jessie Carman, NOAA OAR Weather Program Office, Silver Spring, United States
Conveners:  Luke P Van Roekel, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States, Santha Akella, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States and Bradford Johnson, Trivector Services/NOAA OAR, Office of Weather and Air Quality, Silver Spring, MD, United States
Primary Liaison:  Bradford Johnson, Trivector Services/NOAA OAR, Office of Weather and Air Quality, Silver Spring, MD, United States
Chairs:  Jessie Carman, NOAA OAR Weather Program Office, Silver Spring, United States and Luke P Van Roekel, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Bradford Johnson, Trivector Services/NOAA OAR, Office of Weather and Air Quality, Silver Spring, MD, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • IN - Earth and Space Science Informatics
Index Terms:

1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1627 Coupled models of the climate system [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3315 Data assimilation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4263 Ocean predictability and prediction [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Revisiting Ice / Ocean Coupling Strategies for Stability, Efficiency, and Physical Consistency (Invited) (429037)
Robert Hallberg, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States; Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, United States and Alistair Adcroft, Program for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, United States
NCEP's Hybrid-GODAS: A Path towards an Operational "Strongly Coupled" Ocean/Ice/Wave Data Assimilation System (465697)
Travis Cole Sluka, JCSDA/UCAR, Boulder, United States and Steve Penny, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
Evaluating the extended range ocean forecast in the NRL Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Sea Ice Forecast System (453762)
James G Richman1, Jay F Shriver2, E. Joseph Metzger2, James D Dykes3, Luis Zamudio4 and Patrick J Hogan5,6, (1)Florida State University, COAPS, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (2)Naval Research Laboratory, Ocean Sciences Division, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (3)Naval Research Laboratory SSC, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (4)Peraton, Inc., Herndon, VA, United States, (5)Stennis Space Ctr, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (6)Naval Research Laboratory, Oceanography Division, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States
The Importance of Better-represented Tropical Atmosphere in Climate Models on Extratropical Seasonal Climate Predictability (465027)
Fanrong Jenny Zeng, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Xiaosong Yang, NOAA, GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States and Thomas L Delworth, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, United States
Stability of strongly and weakly coupled data assimilation: error correlation cut-off (Invited) (381683)
Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD, United States and Takuma Yoshida, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan
Sea ice data assimilation in SODA3 reanalysis. (371688)
Gennady A Chepurin, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, United States, James Carton, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Ligang Chen, University of Maryland, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, College Park, United States
Initialization for seasonal-to-decadal prediction in GFDL's SPEAR system using coupled data assimilation (437168)
Feiyu Lu1, Anthony John Rosati2, Matt Harrison3, Thomas L Delworth4 and William Cooke4, (1)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (2)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (4)NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, United States

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