NG21A:
Stochastic Modeling and Nonlinear Waves in Atmosphere, Ocean, Climate Dynamics, and Space Physics Posters


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 57895

Session Description:
Geophysical fluids and space physics properties depend on complex interactions between waves, thermodynamics, and turbulence. Subgrid-scale processes such as breaking waves or convection that can affect overall circulation are challenging to model in global systems. Stochastic approaches are increasingly important in the weather and climate science for subgrid-scale parameterizations. Forecasting the atmosphere-ocean-land-space system in the presence of uncertainty is a key aspect of earth science. Stochasticity can be applied across all levels of model complexity. Recent progress has been made in stochastic modeling of clouds, gravity waves, ocean eddies, land/sea-ice processes and hydrology. Applications of increasing complexity require sophisticated computational tools and data assimilation techniques. This session aims at bringing together the mathematical, statistical, and geophysical communities for applications from atmosphere, ocean to magnetosphere and space weather. Stochastic processes in meteorology, oceanography, climate and space physics, including new model and data-driven stochastic modeling will be presented and discussed.
Primary Convener:  Aneesh Subramanian, University of Colorado at Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States
Conveners:  Cecile Penland, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Yoshiharu Omura, Kyoto University, Research Institute for Sustainable Humanosphere, Kyoto, Japan and Dr. Raffaele Marino, CNRS, École Centrale de Lyon, Écully, France
Primary Liaison:  Aneesh Subramanian, University of Colorado at Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States
Chairs:  Cecile Penland, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States and Yoshiharu Omura, Kyoto University, Research Institute for Sustainable Humanosphere, Kyoto, Japan
OSPA Liaison:  Dr. Raffaele Marino, CNRS, École Centrale de Lyon, Écully, France
Co-Organized with:
Nonlinear Geophysics, and Ocean Sciences

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • C - Cryosphere
  • IN - Earth and Space Science Informatics
  • OS - Ocean Sciences

Proposed Co-Organized Session with:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • C - Cryosphere
  • IN - Earth and Space Science Informatics
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:

1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]
3319 General circulation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3336 Numerical approximations and analyses [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4490 Turbulence [NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Linear variation of dissipation efficiency in rotating stratified turbulence (343607)
Annick Pouquet, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, CISL, Boulder, CO, United States, Duane L. Rosenberg, Colorado State University, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, United States and Dr. Raffaele Marino, CNRS, École Centrale de Lyon, Écully, France
Experimental investigation on shoaling characteristics of internal solitary wave over a gentle slope (352283)
Gang Wei1, Yongchui Zhang2 and Hui Du1, (1)National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China, (2)National University of Defense Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, Nanjing, China
Direct Turbulence Flux Estimates from Standard Moorings using the Modular Acoustic Velocity Sensor (MAVS) (451820)
Kurt L Polzin, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States and Albert J Williams III, Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst, Woods Hole, MA, United States
The Skewed Nature of Ensemble Forecasts (356478)
Cecile Penland, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
The Application of an Adaptive Programming Process to the Maintenance of a Coupled Mesoscale-Dispersion Ensemble Model for Emergency Response (363419)
David W Werth, Savannah River Nuclear Solutions, LLC, Aiken, SC, United States and Robert Buckley, Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC, United States
A stochastically-perturbed-parameters Gent-McWilliams scheme based on a priori estimation of the quasi-Stokes diffusivity (368666)
Ian Grooms, University of Colorado at Boulder, Applied Mathematics, Boulder, United States and William Kleiber, University of Colorado Boulder, Department of Applied Mathematics, Boulder, United States
Improvement in Ensemble Spread in the Next NWS Global Ensemble Forecast System Using Stochastic Physics (375024)
Walter Kolczynski Jr.1,2, Eric Sinsky1,3, Philip Pegion4, Dingchen Hou2, Jeffrey Whitaker5, Yuejian Zhu6, Thomas Hamill7 and Xiaqiong Zhou2,8, (1)IMSG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (2)NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (3)IMSG, College Park, MD, United States, (4)NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States, (5)NOAA PSL, Boulder, United States, (6)NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, (7)NOAA Boulder, ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States, (8)IMSG, College Park, United States
Joint State and Parameter Estimation for Non-Linear Stochastic Energy Balance Models (375534)
Adam H Monahan, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada, Nils Weitzel, University of Bonn, Meteorological Institute, Bonn, Germany and Fei Lu, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Data-driven stochastic model for the Pleistocene global temperature: Dynamical mechanism of the Middle Pleistocene transition (385746)
Alexander M Feigin1, Dmitry Mukhin1, Andrey Gavrilov1, Evgeny Loskutov1 and Juergen Kurths2, (1)Institute of Applied Physics RAS, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, (2)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Process-Based Evaluation of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies on Convective-Resolving Ensemble Forecasts of Heavy Rainfall Events in New York and Taiwan (414024)
Kevin Michael Lupo, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States, Shu-Chih Yang, National Central University, Zhongli, Taiwan and Ryan Torn, University at Albany, State University of New York, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States
Ocean Transport Modeling to Predict and Mitigate Regional Flow-Based Hazards (416023)
Siona Prasad, Vienna, VA, United States
A Multilevel Approach to Simulation of a Stochastic Shallow-Water with Rainfall System (421519)
Philip Townsend, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1, United Kingdom and Omar Lakkis, University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom
Can we create a one-size fits all stochastic pattern generator for different time-scales? (438974)
Philip Pegion, NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States and Jeffrey Whitaker, NOAA PSL, Boulder, United States
Error Models for the in situ Sea Surface Temperature, Averaged Over Space-Time Bins (440342)
Alexey Kaplan, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
CanStoc: combining numerical and stochastic models for long term prediction (440801)
Lenin Del Rio Amador, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada, Shaun Lovejoy, McGill Univ, Montreal, QC, Canada and Nikola Jajcay, Institute of Computer Science, Czech Academy of Sciences, Department of Complex Systems, Prague 8, Czech Republic

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