SM53A:
Quantifying Uncertainty in Space Weather Modeling and Forecasting II


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 61101

Session Description:
Dynamic solar outputs including flares, high-speed solar wind, and coronal mass ejections, drive responses in geospace that can have deleterious effects on technological systems. Further, upward propagation of atmospheric waves and tides produces natural variability in Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere. Many types of models are used to forecast, nowcast, or hindcast, space weather relevant quantities, but the uncertainty of these predictions is often not quantified or reported. Simulations of varying complexity are key to our understanding of the physics that drives space weather, and any simulation or forecast has uncertainty which can arise from a number of sources. These sources include uncertainties in the initial condition, uncertainties in input data, and approximations made in the construction of the model. The goal of this session is to showcase new research in ensemble modeling, probabilistic forecasting, model sensitivity studies, and other approaches to improve uncertainty quantification in space weather modeling and forecasting.
Primary Convener:  Steven Morley, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Space Science and Applications, Los Alamos, United States
Conveners:  Gang Lu, National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, CO, United States and Sophie A. Murray, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Primary Liaison:  Steven Morley, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Space Science and Applications, Los Alamos, United States
Chairs:  Steven Morley, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Space Science and Applications, Los Alamos, United States and Sophie A. Murray, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
OSPA Liaison:  Sophie A. Murray, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Co-Organized with:
SPA-Magnetospheric Physics, and SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics

Proposed Co-Organized Session with:
  • SA - SPA-Aeronomy
  • SH - SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics
Index Terms:

1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]
7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7959 Models [SPACE WEATHER]
7999 General or miscellaneous [SPACE WEATHER]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Assessing the Performance of NOAA SWPC’s Operational Geospace Model (Invited) (345588)
Michele D Cash1, Howard J Singer2, Christopher C Balch3, Robert A Steenburgh4, Monty Spencer2, Gabor Toth5 and Daniel T Welling6, (1)NASA, Boulder, United States, (2)NOAA-Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NOAA-Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States, (4)NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (6)University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Ensemble approaches to forecasting the near-Earth solar wind (Invited) (345867)
Mathew James Owens, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, Pete Riley, Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, United States and Timothy Simon Horbury, Imperial College London, Department of Physics, London, SW7, United Kingdom
NOAA SWPC / CCMC Partnership to Validate Heliospheric Models (381665)
M. Leila Mays, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Eric T Adamson, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States, Victor J Pizzo, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States, Douglas Alan Biesecker, Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, Peter J MacNeice, NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, United States and Aleksandre Taktakishvili, Catholic University of America, Washington, United States
Modeling Ensemble Prediction of Solar Flares (433215)
Dr. Jordan Armando Guerra1, Sophie A. Murray2, D. Bloomfield3 and Peter Gallagher2, (1)Villanova University, Villanova, PA, United States, (2)Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland, (3)Northumbria University, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, United Kingdom
Ensemble Spread as a Precursor to Extreme Space Weather Events (442347)
Erin Michelle Lynch1, A Surjalal Sharma2, Eugenia Kalnay3 and Keenan Christopher Eure3, (1)University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Univ Maryland, College Park, United States, (3)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD, United States
Using the NCAR Model Evaluation Tools (MET) to Evaluate Predictions of Ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) (464977)
Tara L Jensen, NCAR, RAL, Boulder, United States, Naomi Maruyama, University of Colorado, Boulder, United States, Dominic J. Fuller-Rowell, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States, George H Millward, CU/CIRES NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, United States, Timothy J Fuller-Rowell, Univ of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, United States, Jonathan L Vigh, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States and John Halley-Gotway, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO, United States
Uncertainty in simulating the ionosphere-thermosphere response to geomagnetic storms due to lower atmosphere and high-latitude forcing (408823)
Nicholas M Pedatella1, Hanli Liu2, Gang Lu3 and Arthur D Richmond3, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, CO, United States
Accurate and Reliable Probabilistic Forecast Generated from a Deterministic Model (358037)
Enrico Camporeale, Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica, Amsterdam, Netherlands, Dr. Xiangning Chu, University of California Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, Oleksiy V Agapitov, Space Science Laboratory, UCB, Berkeley, United States and Jacob Bortnik, University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States

See more of: SPA-Magnetospheric Physics