H44D:
Drought Process and Prediction: Vulnerability, Hazard, and Risk I


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Session ID#: 61995

Session Description:
Drought can develop and intensify in a short amount of time and result in major agricultural losses if they are not predicted and detected in a timely manner. Understanding drought mechanisms, frequency and severity, and generating reliable prediction on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales are of critical importance for impact assessment, disaster mitigation, and loss prevention. Furthermore, quantifying socioeconomic vulnerability to drought and assessing drought termination and recovery are crucial for implementing proactive drought risk management strategies. This session invites contributions from all aspects of drought monitoring, diagnosis, and prediction, including (1) understanding the physical mechanism and manifestation of drought events on shorter timescales, (2) S2S predictability of dynamic models and statistical methods in drought detection, (3) probabilistic and deterministic drought recovery modeling and forecasting, (4) estimation of S2S drought frequency, spatial patterns, and variability, and (5) diagnosis and attribution of socioeconomic drought vulnerability and risk.
Primary Convener:  L. Gwen Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, United States
Conveners:  Lifeng Luo, Michigan State University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States, Hamid Moradkhani, The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States and Ali Ahmadalipour, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States
Primary Liaison:  Lifeng Luo, Michigan State University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States
Chairs:  Lifeng Luo, Michigan State University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States, L. Gwen Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, United States, Hamid Moradkhani, The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States and Ali Ahmadalipour, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Lifeng Luo, Michigan State University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1812 Drought [HYDROLOGY]
1816 Estimation and forecasting [HYDROLOGY]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1833 Hydroclimatology [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Flash Drought as Captured by Reanalysis Data: Disentangling the Contributions of Precipitation Deficit and Excess Energy (Invited) (347544)
Randal D Koster1, Sarith P P Mahanama2,3, Hailan Wang4, Siegfried D Schubert4,5, Yehui Chang2 and Dr. Anthony M DeAngelis, PhD6, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States, (2)NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (3)Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States, (4)SSAI, Hampton, VA, United States, (5)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (6)Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, United States
Mechanisms of drought onset and termination in the southern Great Plains (433305)
Richard Seager, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, Jennifer Nakamura, Lamont Doherty Earth Obs, Palisades, NY, United States and Mingfang Ting, Columbia Climate School, New York, United States
Causes and Predictability of Drought in the US High Plains (412422)
Hailan Wang, Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Hampton, Hampton, VA, United States, Siegfried D Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Randal D Koster, NASA Goddard SFC, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States, Dr. Anthony M DeAngelis, PhD, Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, United States and Yehui Chang, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Sensitivity of US Drought Prediction Skill to Land Initial States on Subseasonal to Seasonal Timescales (418478)
Chul-Su Shin1, Bohua Huang1, Paul Dirmeyer2 and Arun Kumar3, (1)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, (2)George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic & Earth Sciences Department, Fairfax, VA, United States, (3)NOAA/NCEP Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States
Overview of drought monitoring and prediction activities at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (Invited) (392220)
Jon Gottschalck, NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC, United States, David Miskus, NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States and Muthuvel Chelliah, NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, MD, United States
New Drought Monitoring and Drought Recovery Products Available from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (379403)
Richard R Heim Jr, NOAA Asheville, Asheville, NC, United States
Quantifying Sensitivity of Drought Resilience and Vulnerability to Hydrologic Ratios – a Watershed Scale Analysis (459169)
Anoop Valiya veettil, Prairie View A&M University, Cooperative Agricultural Research Center, Prairie View, United States and Ashok Mishra, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, United States
Continental scale drought risk assessment: Integrating vulnerability, hazard, and exposure (363897)
Ali Ahmadalipour, KatRisk LLC, Berkeley, CA, United States and Hamid Moradkhani, The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States

See more of: Hydrology