H31A:
Advances in Ensemble Flood Forecasting, Flood Estimation, and Risk Analysis I


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Session ID#: 62222

Session Description:
Floods are recognized as the most common largely distributed hazard to life, property, and the economy, costing billions of dollars every year. This session focuses on ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting to enhance short-term flood mitigation strategies and long-term flood risk management. Advances may include enhanced understanding of flood processes, improved ensemble analysis and prediction methods, modelling and forecasting techniques. Targeted topics relevant to the session focus include: estimation of flood regimes,  ensemble or probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasting, downscaling of meteorological forecasts as well as forecasts pre- and post-processing , hydrologic modeling in a flood forecasting context, in-situ and remotely sensed data assimilation, uncertainty quantification and forecast verification, assessment of forecasts in terms of economic value, risk analysis of socio-economic and environmental impacts of floods, and applications of short to medium range flood forecasts.
Primary Convener:  Paulin DL Coulibaly, McMaster University, Department of Civil Engineering, Hamilton, ON, Canada
Conveners:  Marie-Amelie Boucher, Université de Sherbrooke, Department of Civil Engineering, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada, Andrew W Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and ML Levent Kavvas, Univ California Davis, Davis, CA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Andrew W Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Chairs:  Andrew W Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Marie-Amelie Boucher, Université de Sherbrooke, Département de génie civil et de génie du bâtiment, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada and ML Levent Kavvas, Univ California Davis, Davis, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Marie-Amelie Boucher, Université de Sherbrooke, Département de génie civil et de génie du bâtiment, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada
Index Terms:

1816 Estimation and forecasting [HYDROLOGY]
1821 Floods [HYDROLOGY]
1847 Modeling [HYDROLOGY]
1860 Streamflow [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

The Uncertainty of Using Ensemble Forecasts (Invited) (397215)
Edwin Welles, Deltares USA, Silver Spring, United States
Identifying Causative Atmospheric Mechanisms of Extreme Floods across the United States (374828)
Katherine Schlef, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States and Upmanu Lall, Columbia University, Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States
Flood warning runoff thresholds in ungauged basins: application of rainfall-runoff models and of regression-type approaches over two data sets in the Alps and in the United States (438521)
Elena Toth, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy, Juraj Parajka, Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, TU Wien, 1040 Vienna, Austria and Centre for Water Resource Systems, TU Wien, 1040 Vienna, Austria, Vienna, Austria and Mattia Neri, University of Bologna, DICAM, Bologna, Italy
Performance of Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor with Ensemble Weather Forecasts Used in Flood Forecasting (384308)
Shasha Han, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada and Paulin DL Coulibaly, McMaster University, Department of Civil Engineering, Hamilton, ON, Canada
Validation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) (439368)
Hak Su Lee1, Yuqiong Liu2, James Brown3, James Ward2, Alexander Maestre4, Mark A Fresch2, Hank Herr2 and Ernie Wells5, (1)NOAA Washington DC, Washington, DC, United States, (2)NOAA/NWS/OWP, Silver Spring, United States, (3)Hydrologic Solutions Limited, Southampton, United Kingdom, (4)NOAA/NWS Office of Water Prediction, National Water Center, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, (5)NOAA/NWS, Analyze, Forecast and Support Office, Silver Spring, United States
Analyzing Effects of Inundated Land Area on Downstream Flow in the Red River Basin (442157)
Stuart Smith1, Stephen J Kines1, Keith Aric Cherkauer2, Shugong Wang3, Andrew W Wood4 and Laura C Bowling5, (1)Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States, (2)Purdue University, Agricultural & Biological Engineering, West Lafayette, IN, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA-GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)Purdue University, Agronomy, West Lafayette, IN, United States
A Neighboring Pixel Ensemble Technique for Probabilistic Flash Flood Forecasting (467467)
Humberto J Vergara, University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Norman, OK, United States, Jonathan J Gourley, National Severe Storms Lab, Oklahoma City, United States and Michael J. Erickson, CIRES, College Park, MD, United States
Continental Streamflow Forecasting in South America: a First Assessment (433673)
Vinicius Alencar Siqueira1, Rodrigo C. D. Paiva2, Fernando M Fan1, Ayan Santos Fleischmann3 and Walter Collischonn2, (1)UFRGS Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Institute of Hydraulic Research, Porto Alegre, Brazil, (2)Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Institute of Hydraulic Research, Porto Alegre, Brazil, (3)Mamirauá Institute for Sustainable Development, Tefé, Brazil

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