Using Multi-Model Ensembles in Climate Change Projections: Challenges and Opportunities
Using Multi-Model Ensembles in Climate Change Projections: Challenges and Opportunities
Previously Published Material: I have presented similar types of talks at several meetings in the past. Some of the illustrations have been published in papers by me and co-authors like Reto Knutti and David Lobell.
Abstract ID#: 33615
English Abstract:
I will talk about approaches to characterizing uncertainties in future climate projections on the basis of MMEs, highlighting the hurdles and challenges in translating characterization into quantification. I will offer an example where some of those obstacles can be overcome, using some recent work that quantified the risk of significant impacts on crop yields from anthropogenic climate change.
My aim is to caution about the statistical oddities that make MMEs difficult to interpret and analyze, but also to highlight circumstances under which I believe those oddities may be less relevant and therefore could be discounted in the quest for probabilistic quantification of uncertainties in climate changes and their impacts.