AS11B:
Climate Applications of Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) Systems I
Submit an Abstract to this Session
Session Title - en français: Applications des systèmes de prévisions climatiques d’ensemble multi-modèles.
Session ID#: 6127
Session Description:
This session will explore new methods for generating information from and application of multi-model ensemble (MME) systems in climate science, related to several international projects: WWRP/WCRP S2S, NMME, NAEFS, TIGGE, APCC, and WMO-LRFMME. Research has shown that multimodel prediction systems can potentially generate more skillful forecasts than the singlemodel systems from which they are comprised. However, at this time the full potential to utilize predictable signals of climate variability or change from MME forecasts has not been realized.
Submissions are encouraged from all areas of climate research using MME systems, such as: 1) Probabilistic forecasting and quantifying uncertainty; 2) Optimization of multi-model combination; 3) Prediction of climate modes of variability and their impacts; 4) Limits of predictability of climate signals; 5) Applications of MME, particularly to high impact and extreme climate events; 6) Decadal, seasonal, and sub-seasonal forecasting with MME, 7) Interactions of climate variability and climate change.
Session Description - en français: Cette session explorera de nouvelles méthodes d’application et de génération d’information à partir de prévisions d’ensembles multi-modèles (MME en anglais) dans le domaine de la science climatique en lien avec plusieurs projets internationaux, incluant les projets WWRP/WCRP S2S, NMME, NAEFS, TIGGE, APCC et WMO-LRFMME.
Nous encourageons les soumissions dans tous les domaines de recherche sur le climat utilisant des systèmes de prévisions MME, tels que : 1 ) Les prévisions probabilistes et la quantification des incertitudes ; 2 ) Optimisation de combinaison multi-modèle ; 3 ) Prévision des modes de variabilité climatiques ainsi que leurs impacts; 4 ) Les limites de la prévisibilité des signaux climatiques; 5 ) Les applications des prévisions MME, en particulier pour les événements climatiques extrêmes et à forts impacts ; 6 )Prévisions MME décennales, saisonnières et sous-saisonnières; 7) Interactions entre la variabilité climatique et les changements climatiques.
OSPA Liaison: Emily J Becker, Innovim, College Park, MD, United States
Chairs: Dan C Collins, Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Bertrand Denis, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Primary Convener: Dan C Collins, Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, United States
Conveners: Emily J Becker, Innovim, College Park, MD, United States; NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States, Bertrand Denis, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada and Hai Lin, Environment Canada, Meteorological Research Division, Science & Technology Branch, Dorval, QC, Canada
Co-Sponsor(s):
Abstracts Submitted to this Session:
Development of a Bayesian Probabilistic Model for the NARCCAP Regional Climate Model Ensemble Using Information from the Driving GCMs to Formulate Priors and Application to Hydrology Impacts (Invited) (35365)
Linda Mearns, NCAR, RAL, Boulder, CO, United States, Stephan R Sain, Climate Corporation, San Francisco, CA, United States and Seth A McGinnis, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
On the Level of Agreement Between Climate-Change Projections from Same-Centre Models (35519)
Martin Leduc1, René Laprise2, Ramón de Elía1 and Leo Separovic3, (1)Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada, (2)University of Quebec at Montreal UQAM, Montreal, QC, Canada, (3)Environment Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Introducing Multi-Model Ensembles to Decision-Makers: The Perception Challenge (34914)
David B Huard, Ouranos, Quebec City, QC, Canada; Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada, Michael P.H. Vieira, Manitoba Hydro, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, Nathalie Thiémonge, Hydro-Québec, Montréal, QC, Canada and René Roy, Ouranos, Montréal, QC, Canada
Improving Multimodel Medium Range Precipitation Forecasts over the Greater Horn of Africa Using the FSU Superensemble (33542)
Oliver Kipkogei, University of Nairobi, Meteorology, Nairobi, Kenya, Amit Bhardwaj, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA, Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences,, Tallahassee, FL, United States, T N Krishnamurti, Florida State Univ, Tallahassee, FL, United States, Laban Ogallo, IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre, Climate Services, Nairobi, Kenya and Vinay Kumar, Indiana University, Bloomington, United States
