Understanding and Modelling Hydrological Impacts of Land Use and Land Management Change
Howard S. Wheater, University of Saskatchewan, Centre for Hydrology and Global Institute for Water Security, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Contact First Author: Howard S. Wheater; howard.wheater@usask.ca
Previously Published Material: Findings included in this presentation have also been reported in the following journals: 1) McIntyre, N., Ballard, C., Bruen, M., Bulygina, N., Buytaert, W., Cluckie, I., Dunn, S., Ehret, U., Ewen, J., Gelfan, A., Hess, T., Hughes, D., Jackson, B., Kjeldsen, T.R., Merz, R., Park, J-S., O’Connell, E., O’Donnell, G., Oudin, L., Todini, E., Wagener, T. and Wheater, H.S. 2014. Modelling the hydrological impacts of rural land use change. Hydrology Research, doi:10.2166/nh2013.145. 2) Bulygina, N., Ballard, C., McIntyre, N., O'Donnell, G. and Wheater, H.S. 2012. Integrating different types of information into the hydrological model parameter estimation: Application to ungauged catchments and land use scenario analysis. Water Resources Research, 48(6): W06519, DOI: 10.1029/2011WR011207. 3) Fraser, C.E., McIntyre, N., Jackson, B.M. and Wheater, H.S. 2013. Upscaling hydrological processes and land management change impacts using a metamodeling procedure. Water Resources Research, 49: 1-17, doi: 10.1002/wrcr.20432
English Abstract:
Understanding the impacts of human activities on the water environment is a grand challenge for hydrological science; effects include land-atmosphere feedbacks, as well as changes to surface water and groundwater systems. There is therefore a need to understand local impacts and also their larger scale effects, with associated implications for observations and modelling. Urbanisation remains one of the most dramatic changes to the natural environment, but changes to flood runoff processes are relatively well understood, are identifiable from regional analysis of catchment response and are routinely accounted for in urban storm-water design. However, the representation of basin-scale impacts of urbanisation remains a challenge, as local detail of urban development and drainage design are important factors in determining larger scale response. Other unresolved issues include quantification of urban water balances, land-atmosphere interactions, and water quality impacts. Agricultural land management effects are more subtle and often poorly understood. Regional hydrological analyses have failed to identify large-scale effects on runoff response, but have provided some insights into nutrient processes. There is an urgent need for detailed monitoring and modelling of fine scale processes, and the development and application of appropriate models at basin and regional scales, to guide management and policy. Recent developments in modelling the effects of agricultural land management change across scales are discussed; outstanding challenges for observations and modelling are identified.
