Climate Change and Climate Variability Effects on Agricultural Food Production in Kieni East District, Nyeri County, Kenya.

English Abstract:

Kenya like the rest of the world is experiencing climate change and climate variability and the associated adverse effects with significance on food security. Rainfall trends and temperature variance are evidence of climate change and variability through heat stress, droughts, rainfall variations, distribution changes and flooding leading to crop failure and reductions in yields. The purpose of the study is to assess the effects of climate change and variability on agriculture, estimate rainfall amounts, distribution, trends, temperature variance, vegetation health and vigor of the study area, crop yields per crop type over a continuous period of time. The target population is eco-climatic variables Rainfall amounts, distribution and trends, Temperature variance, vegetation cover, vegetation health and vigor, and crop yield. The sampling technique will be purposive sampling for vegetation index, rainfall amounts, temperatures and crop yields. Research instruments for data collection are Satellite Data Analysis using GIS/Remote Sensing Techniques, interviews with agricultural officers and local farmers, Questionnaires and Field Surveys. Datasets to be used will include SPOTVGT 1Km, climate data from satellite measurements of FEWSNETRFE 1Km and KMD, temperature using MODIS and Crop Yields from KNCPB and the collection procedure for satellite imagery acquisition, preprocessing, interpretation, analysis scheduled interviews, Questionnaires and field observation and validation and acquire information impossible to obtain from satellite data. Data processing will use GIS/RS Software ArcGIS, Erdas, Envi, Ilwis and Microsoft Access. Supervised Classification of Landsat image to identify agricultural landextent and crop type. Vegetation Index will be derived from SPOTVGT NDVI and a temporal analysis to illustrate trends of vegetation vigor using Erdas/ ILWIS/ ENVI. Cumulative Rainfall amounts trendsanalysis distribution and Yields data will be generated. The time frame for the study will be 25yrs. This study looks forward to improving community livelihoods through sustainable utilization of available resources and reduce food shortage and insecurity.