Security Implications of Changes in the Asian Monsoon

Abstract:

Significant changes in climate systems have been associated with the collapse of societies in the past. There is speculation that climate change will cause similar collapses in the future, including in Asia where the failure of the Asian monsoon is a risk to the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people, and to the stability of economies, populations, and political systems.

Evidence of past collapses point to climate as a trigger of catastrophic changes in social systems where there was a predominance of subsistence producers, territorial disputes and violence in peripheral regions, and autocratic systems of government. But past collapses are not useful analogues for understanding contemporary and future security risks.

This talk maps the possible pathways by which failure of the Asian Monsoon may drive insecurity in Asia. The potential pathways by which monsoon failure may undermine livelihoods, enhance migration, increase the risk of violent conflict, aggravate geopolitical rivalries and weaken the integrity of states will be explained, as will the feedbacks that can amplify or dampen down the risk of escalating security crises.