Projections of daily extremes rainfall over Central Africa using CMIP5 models

The ensemble mean of 11 state-of-the-art global climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is applied to evaluate model performance in the historical period and analyze future changes in heavy rainfall over the Central Africa, at the mid and the end of the 21st century following one greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 8.5. We focus the analyses in the 90th and 99th percentiles of the total daily rainfall distributions for two 30-years periods (2036-2065 and 2071-2100). The models ensemble mean well reproduces the observed spatial distribution of both percentiles with some dry bias. The results of future changes show robust signal in the heavy rainfall response i.e., increasing amounts in central part of our region and the few areas in the northern and southern part characterized
by a reduction of extreme rainfall or no trends.