Predicting Human Mobility Patterns in Marine Ecosystems: Entropy and Home Range Calculations Based on High-Resolution Fishing Vessel Tracking Data

A number of recent studies have developed metrics of human mobility patterns based on georeferenced cell phone records. The studies generally indicate a high degree of predictability in human location and relatively narrow home ranges for most people. In marine ecosystems there are a number of important uses for such calculations including marine spatial planning and predicting the impacts of marine management options such as establishing marine protected areas (MPAs). In this study we use individual fishing vessel satellite tracking (VMS) records (~30 million records) obtained from commercial reef fish fishing vessels in the Gulf of Mexico during 2006-2014. This period witnessed the establishment of a variety of new regulations including individual fishing quotas (IFQs) for snapper, grouper, and tilefish, establishment of spatial-area closures, and the temporary closure of as much as 85,000 nautical miles of productive fishing grounds associated with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill accident. Vessel positions were obtained, with a location frequency of one hour. From these VMS data we calculated three measures of entropy (degree of repeatability in spatial use), as well as calculated the axis of gyration (home range) for each vessel in the data set. These calculations were related to a variety of descriptor variables including vessel size, distance from home port to predominant fishing grounds, revenue generated on fishing trips, and fishing regulations. The applicability of these calculations to marine resource management applications is discussed.