The Impact of Sea Surface Temperature on Organized Convective Storms Crossing over Coastlines

As organized coastal convective storms develop over land and move over the coastal ocean, their storm-scale structures, intensity, and associated weather threats evolve. This study aims to quantify the impact of sea surface temperature on the fundamental mechanisms controlling the evolution of coastal quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) as they move offshore. Results from this work will contribute to the improved predictability of these coastal, potentially severe warm season storms.

The current work systematically studies the interaction between QLCSs and marine atmospheric boundary layers (MABLs) associated with the coastal ocean in an idealized numerical framework. The initial simulations are run in 2-dimensions, with a 250 m horizontal resolution and a vertical resolution ranging from 100 m in the lowest 3000 m stretched to 250 m at the top of the 20 km domain. To create a numerical environment representative of a coastal region, the western half of the 800 km domain is configured to represent a land surface, while the eastern half represents a water surface. A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted to explore the influence of sea surface temperature and the overlying MABL on coastal QLCSs. Sea surface temperature values are selected to represent values observed within the Mid-Atlantic Bight coastal waters, including 5^oC (min SST - January), 14^oC (early summer), and 23^oC (late summer). The numerical MABL is allowed to develop through surface heat fluxes.

Preliminary simulations indicate that SST influences storm structure, with the stratiform precipitation shield becoming progressively wider as SST increases. SST also impacts propagation speed; once the storms are over the water, the early and late summer QLCSs move more quickly than the min SST storm. The physical mechanisms contributing to these and other differences will be discussed.