Classification of Nortes in the Gulf of Mexico derived from wave energy maps

Extreme wave climate in the Gulf of Mexico is determined by tropical cyclones and winds from the Central American Cold Surges, locally referred to as Nortes. While hurricanes can have catastrophic effects, extreme waves and storm surge from Nortes occur several times a year, and thus have greater impacts on human activities along the Mexican coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Despite the constant impacts from Nortes, there is no available classification that relates their characteristics (e.g. pressure gradients, wind speed), to the associated coastal impacts. This work presents a first approximation to characterize and classify Nortes, which is based on the assumption that the derived wave energy synthetizes information (i.e. wind intensity, direction and duration) of individual Norte events as they pass through the Gulf of Mexico. First, we developed an index to identify Nortes based on surface pressure differences of two locations. To validate the methodology we compared the events identified with other studies and available Nortes logs. Afterwards, we detected Nortes from the 1986/1987, 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 seasons and used their corresponding wind fields to derive the wave energy maps using a numerical wave model. We used the energy maps to classify the events into groups using manual (visual) and automatic classifications (principal component analysis and k-means). The manual classification identified 3 types of Nortes and the automatic classification identified 5, although 3 of them had a high degree of similarity. The principal component analysis indicated that all events have similar characteristics, as few components are necessary to explain almost all of the variance. The classification from the k-means indicated that 81% of analyzed Nortes affect the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, while a smaller percentage affects the northern Gulf of Mexico and even less affect the western Caribbean.