An interdecadal regime shift in rainfall predictability related to the Ningaloo Nino in the late 1990s

Takeshi Doi1, Swadhin K Behera1 and Toshio Yamagata2, (1)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, (2)University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan
Abstract:
The global warming and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) started influencing the coastal ocean off Western Australia, leading to a dramatic change in the regional climate predictability. The warmer ocean started driving rainfall variability regionally there after the late 1990s. Because of this, rainfall predictability near the coastal region of Western Australia on a seasonal time scale was drastically enhanced in the late 1990s; it is significantly predictable 5 months ahead after the late 1990s. The high prediction skill of the rainfall in recent decades is very encouraging and would help to develop an early warning system of Ningaloo Nino/Nina events to mitigate possible societal as well as agricultural impacts in the granary of Western Australia.