Impacts of Larval Connectivity on Coral Heat Tolerance

The sensitivity of corals to elevated temperature depends on their acclimation and adaptation to the local maximum temperature regime. Through larval dispersal, however, coral populations can receive larvae from regions that are significantly warmer or colder. If these exogenous larvae carry genetic-based tolerances to colder or warmer temperatures, then the thermal sensitivity of the receiving population may be lower or higher, respectively. Using a high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) configuration for the Coral Triangle region, we quantify the potential role of connectivity in determining the thermal stress threshold (TST) of a typical broadcast spawner. The model results suggest that even with a pelagic larval dispersal period of only 10 days, many reefs receive larvae from reefs that are warmer or cooler than the local temperature, and that accounting for this connectivity improves bleaching predictions. This has important implications for conservation planning, because connectivity may allow some reefs to have an inherited heat tolerance that is higher or lower than would be predicted based on local conditions alone.