Deep time ocean hypoxia: The impact on Jurassic marine ecosystems

In order to understand how the environment will change over the next 100–1000 years and how this will impact the biosphere we need long-term data from a range of scenarios. This long-term perspective can be achieved by looking at periods of comparable environmental change in Earth history. Two past periods of ocean deoxygenation, 150 and 183 million years ago, are compared: (1) a period of global climate change, analogous to that occurring today, and (2) a period of regional hypoxia associated with changing circulation and nutrient supply. Palaeoecological changes in populations, communities, and seafloor functioning were investigated using data spanning millions of years at high resolution (100s–1000s years).

Large shifts in biodiversity, body-size and the population-size of the dominant benthic taxa occurred in response to ocean anoxia. Ecological change spanned multiple trophic levels and suggest that changes in primary productivity impacted macrobenthos and their pelagic predators resulting in biogeographic range shifts. Quantitative analyses of changes in biological traits and core ecosystem functions show changes in nutrient regeneration, food web dynamics, and benthic-pelagic coupling.

During ocean deoxygenation Jurassic ecosystems showed functional resilience and redundancy, but ultimately functioning collapsed. Quantification of the relationships between ecological change and various proxies for palaeoenvironmental change show that both hypoxia and primary productivity were important drivers. Environmental thresholds for local ecosystem change are identified. The patterns of Jurassic ecosystem change share many similarities with present-day hypoxic systems. Critically, the recovery from global anoxia was very slow and connectivity, with potential sources of new recruits, was an important contributor to ecosystem recovery. This emphasises the risks of relying on patterns of short-term and small-scale resilience when managing modern marine systems.