The Boy is Back: El Niño returns in 2015-16

A major El Niño is under development in the tropical Pacific and is expected to peak in late 2015 to early 2016. This event was not predicted in early 2015 and yet has reached surprising intensity. It follows on the heels of a much-anticipated El Niño that was expected to occur in 2014 but never materialized. This presentation will describe evolution of the climate system in the tropical Pacific over the past two years, discuss the physical processes involved in El Niño’s erratic behavior, and consider the question of how well seasonal forecasts of El Niño development verified against observations during this period.