Connecting Past to Present and Watersheds to Ocean: Modeling 165 Years of Incremental Changes to Flows into the San Francisco Bay Delta System

California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta sits at the intersection of vast agricultural and population centers, and supplies fresh water for the diverse and often competing needs of ecosystems, farmers, and millions of Californians. Managing and allocating this resource is a complex feat of economics, politics, and engineering, made increasingly contentious by the ongoing drought. The objective of this research is to augment the scientific foundation of management decisions by addressing the question of how flows into the Delta have evolved in response to human intervention since 1850. In particular, quantifying the dynamic components of water usage through vegetative uptake and evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, flood conveyance, and water exports at incremental levels of development is a key ambition. This approach emphasizes the built environment, which is subject to the local regulatory framework, rather than climate change, which is generally considered immovable without united global effort. This work encompasses the creation of a hydrologic model representing the watersheds of the San Francisco Bay-Delta system, and quantifies the impacts of changes in land use and the gradual construction of levees, reservoirs, and diversion infrastructure. The model is run using the same climatological forcing at each level of development, thus elucidating the effects of local anthropogenic activity on the Delta and the inflows to the San Francisco Bay estuary. Our results provide a timeline of change, giving decision-makers a scientifically established baseline to aid in the sustainable management of the Bay-Delta system.