Makassar Strait Throughflow, 11.3 years time series

We now have 11.3 years of Makassar Strait throughflow: late November 1996 - early July 1998; January 2004 - early August 2011; early August 2013 - mid-August 2015, spanning varied ENSO phases, including the strong El Niño of 1997. Makassar Strait throughflow, averaging 12 Sv (9 Sv in 1997), 80% of the total Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), exhibits a transport maximum within thermocline, as the surface layer transport is suppresses by inflow of buoyant surface water from the South China Sea (SCS). Large seasonality is evident, with reduced transport during boreal winter, increased transport in summer. The winter minimum extends throughout the water column, a combined effect of less Mindanao Current thermocline leakage into the Indonesian seas as well as increased SCS surface layer factor, as both work in concert, responding to the NEC Bifurcation latitude (further north during winter). The Bifurcation latitude interannual variability also reflects ENSO (further south during El Niño) inducing shifts of the Makassar throughflow transport profile: during La Niña the summer transport displays a marked increase in the warm 0-300 m layer, with decreased transport in the cool 300-750 m layer, leading to warmer throughflow, with slightly greater total transport; El Niño leads to reduced transport and cooler Makassar throughflow. The Makassar transport weakened during 2014 into 2015, with a particularly reduced winter transport in 2014/15. A relation to the developing El Niño is considered.