In a warming climate, why do we see decreasing heat flux in the Arctic Ocean

A warmer climate brings more precipitation to the higher latitudes due to northward atmospheric moisture transport, leading to an increase in the river flows. It also heats up the water. With increasing water temperature and river flow, we expect an increase in the net heat flux into the Arctic Ocean. Recent work on the large Siberian rivers, which account for about 70% of water flowing into the Arctic, show a decreasing heat flux trend, which is counter-intuitive.We try to answer this question with statistical analysis, accounting for the major driving processes. We use a change point analysis and non-parametric trend detection, to account for the human-made changes over the large Siberian basins, and their impact on the heat flux trends.