Impact of shortwave radiation biases on ocean conditions in the Pacific Northwest waters: Results from the seasonal forecast system J-SCOPE.

JISAO Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem (J-SCOPE) is an experimental seasonal forecast system of ocean conditions that is designed to support ecosystem-based management of fisheries in the Northwest Pacific ocean. The forecast system consists of a high resolution ROMS model with biogeochemistry forced by atmospheric and oceanic fields from the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Recent research has focused on the systematic errors in this forcing. In 2013, the predicted CFS shortwave radiation fluxes for summer were higher than the observation fluxes by nearly 100 W/m². This forecast bias varies interannually and regionally. Hindcast experiments were set up for 2013 to estimate the impact of the shortwave radiation bias on ocean conditions in the Pacific Northwest waters. Results demonstrate that a 20% increase (decrease) in radiation fluxes can cause a warm (cold) bias in sea surface temperature (SST) of up to 1 – 1.5°C on average, and an even higher bias (± 2°C) during the June – August upwelling season. In the response to an increased radiation flux, the increased stratification from the warmer SSTs can reduce mixing and deepen the maximum phytoplankton growth zone, which consequently modifies the oxygen concentration of the water column. The effect of the change in short wave radiation fluxes on the oxygen concentrations of shelf waters is more complicated than the effect on SST. A change of up to 1 to 1.5 ml/l in bottom oxygen concentration occurs in some areas in the region. Two potential mechanisms that govern the response of the shelf water oxygen concentration are explored in this study: reduced mixing and altered chlorophyll distributions. Through the use of an oxygen budget, we can examine the relative importance of each of these mechanisms to the change in radiation.