Late summer and fall wave climate in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, 2000-2014

Jim Thomson, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

According to IPCC, "warming in the Arctic, as indicated by daily maximum and minimum temperatures, has been as great as in any other part of the world." Some regions within the Arctic have warmed even more rapidly, with Alaska and western Canada's temperature rising by 3 to 4 °C (5.40 to 7.20 °F). Arctic ice is getting thinner, melting and rupturing. The polar ice cap as a whole is shrinking. Images from NASA satellites show that the area of permanent ice cover is contracting at a rate of 9 percent each decade. If this trend continues, summers in the Arctic could become ice-free by the end of the century. Arctic storms thus have the potential to create large waves in the region. Ocean waves can also penetrate remarkable distances into ice fields and impact sea-ice thermodynamics by breaking up ice floes and accelerating ice melting during the summer (Asplin et al 2012); or influencing sea-ice growth and hence the morphology of the mature ice sheet during the winter (Lange et al 1989). Waves breaking on the shore could also affect the coastlines, where melting permafrost is already making shores more vulnerable to erosion.

Preliminary wave model results from four selected years suggests that the sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas is controlled by the wind forcing and the amount of ice-free water available to generate surface waves. In particular, larger waves are more common in years with low or late sea ice cover. Trends in amount of wave energy impinging on the ice edge, however, are inconclusive.

To better understand the potential effect of surface wave on the advance/retreat of ice edges and the coastlines. 15 years (2000 to 2014) of surface wave simulations in the Arctic Ocean using WAVEWATCH III will be conducted. Wind and ice forcing are obtained from the ERA-interim global reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Wave energy flux arriving at the ice edges and land boundaries will be analyzed and histograms and fitted Weibull probability distribution functions will used to identify similarities and differences during the 15 year period. The potential effect of surface waves on ice advance/retreat and land erosion will be explored and discussed.