Regional Sea Level Rise until the end of 23rd century over the North Western Pacific in CMIP5 models

Sea-level rise due to the global warming can have substantial impacts on society, and thus spatial distribution of sea-level rise is an important research topic. Relatively large sea-level rise is expected to occur in the western North Pacific as shown in a future projection at the end of 21^st century in IPCC’s fifth assessment report. Although the global sea-level will continue to rise for a few centuries after the air temperature rise will have stabilized, regional sea-level in the western North Pacific after the end of 21^st century is not investigated. In this study, the regional sea-level changes over the North Pacific and the associated changes of the atmosphere until the end of 23^rd century are investigated by analyzing the output from CMIP5 models.

The spatial pattern of the regional sea-level change in the 21^st century (2071-2100 minus 1971-2000) is different from that in the 22^nd–23^rd century (2271-2300 minus 2071-2100). The pattern difference of the sea-level rise is related to the changes of the Kuroshio Extension. The Kuroshio Extension intensifies until the end of 21^st century, but its axis latitude moves north almost monotonically until the end of 23^rd century. It is suggested that these temporal evolution of regional sea-level rise and Kuroshio Extension changes are related to the changes of atmospheric circulation modes.