The Upgraded Lake Erie Operational Forecast System (LEOFS)

Jiangtao Xu1, Aijun Zhang1, Eric J Anderson2, Gregory Lang3 and John G.W. Kelley4, (1)NOAA/NOS/CO-OPS, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (2)NOAA/GLERL, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (3)NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (4)NOAA/NOS/CSDL
Abstract:
The present Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS), based on Princeton Ocean Model (POM), was developed by The Ohio State University and NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) and has been operationally maintained by NOAA since 2006. NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS) and GLERL have been working together to upgrade GLOFS, starting with the Lake Erie Operational Forecast System (LEOFS), to provide improved forecast guidance of water level, currents and temperature. The upgraded LEOFS uses the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) as its core ocean circulation model, has higher spatial resolution (400 m to 3.5 km horizontally, and 21 vertical layers), and extends the forecast horizon from 60 hours to 120 hours. The model will also support harmful algal bloom forecasting in Lake Erie. The upgraded LEOFS is scheduled to become operational in February 2016, and the upgrade of the other lakes will be completed by 2020. This presentation will give an overview of the configuration of the upgraded LEOFS, examine model performance against the existing system and real-time observations, and discuss the future improvements planned for the system, such as ice forecasting.
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