Sources of Meridional Heat and Freshwater Transport Anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean

Observations of thermosteric and halosteric sea level from hydrographic data, ocean mass from GRACE and altimetric sea surface height are used to infer meridional heat transport (MHT) and freshwater convergence (FWC) anomalies for the Atlantic Ocean for 1993-2014. A Kalman filter extracts smooth estimates of heat transport convergence (HTC) and FWC from discrepancies between the sea level response to monthly surface heat and freshwater fluxes and observed heat and freshwater content in each of eight regions. Estimates of MHT anomalies are derived by summing the HTC from north to south and adding an integration constant derived from updated MHT estimates at 41N (Willis 2010). MHT estimates are relatively insensitive to the choice of heat flux products and are highly coherent spatially. Anomalies in MHT are comparable to those observed at the RAPID/MOCHA line at 26.5N and show a continued recovery from the minimum in 2010 throughout the Atlantic. MHT anomalies resemble estimates of Agulhas Leakage derived from altimeter (LeBars et al 2014) suggesting that the Indian Ocean is the source of the anomalous heat inflow. FWC estimates are also insensitive to choice of flux products. Interannual anomalies of FWC integrated from 67N to 35S resemble estimates of Atlantic river inflow (de Couet and Maurer, GRDC 2009), whereas the trend is consistent with estimates of freshwater input from Greenland. Increasing values of FWC after 2002 at a time when MHT was decreasing may indicate a feedback between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and FWC that would accelerate the AMOC slowdown.