Cod Collapse and Climate in the North Atlantic

Understanding the determinants of fish population dynamics is crucial to the recovery of many fisheries. Current research emphasizes the role of environmental conditions in driving fish populations, but the magnitude of and mechanisms behind these effects on crucial populations are not well established. Despite aggressive management efforts, New England cod fisheries have been in decline for several decades and have now reached unprecedented lows. We find a strong negative relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and subsequent adult cod biomass and catch. In the Gulf of Maine fishery, a 1-unit NAO increase is associated with a 13% decrease in the biomass of age-1 cod the following year, a decrease that persists as the affected cohort matures. We further detect that a 1-unit NAO increase can lower commercial catch for up to 19 subsequent years, suggesting that fishing practices may be inadvertently exacerbating NAO’s direct biological effects. These results imply that 18% and 32% of the overall decline in adult biomass and catch, respectively, since 1980 can be attributed to the NAO’s recent multi-decadal positive phase. The Georges Bank cod fishery displays similar patterns. Because there is a delay between an NAO event and subsequent declines in adult biomass, our finding implies that already observed NAO events can be used in stock forecasts, providing lead time for adaptive policy. More broadly, our approach can inform forecasting efforts for other fisheries strongly affected by natural and anthropogenic climatic variation.