Short-term sea ice forecasts with the RASM-ESRL coupled model: A testbed for improving simulations of ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions in the marginal ice zone

A mesoscale coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean mixed layer model, termed RASM-ESRL, has recently been developed from the larger-scale RASM architecture. The atmospheric component of RASM-ESRL consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the sea-ice component is the Los Alamos CICE model, and the ocean model is a single-layer ocean mixed layer. Experimental 5-day forecasts were run daily with this model from early July through mid-November 2015. This period included the Sea State field program when an array of buoys and the R/V Sikuliaq were deployed near the advancing ice edge from Oct 1 to Nov 6. Before Sea State, validations of these forecasts, as well as additional hindcasts, were done using a) surface energy fluxes, rawinsondes, and remote sensor retrievals of the lower atmosphere at Barrow, AK, and Tiksi, Siberia; and b) surface temperature, pressure, ice thickness and snow evolution at a few ice mass balance buoys located in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas. During Sea State, more extensive validation data are available for many components of the air-ice-ocean system in the marginal ice zone, including detailed atmospheric structure, surface energy fluxes, ocean mixed layer temperatures and salinity, and sea ice extent and thickness. This presentation will describe the performance of various components of this coupled model, identifying aspects that are being represented well and those that are problematic.