A modeling approach to investigate the sensitivity of plankton phenology to global change since the Last Glacial Maximum

Plankton phenology is a key aspect of ecosystem dynamics. Up to now, it is not known how sensitive this parameter is to environmental perturbations and what magnitude of change is conceivable under extreme climate change scenarios. For example, one could argue that the phenology of the dominant Arctic planktonic foraminifera species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma will only shift slightly recording the more or less delayed onset of spring ocean warming. This assumption can be tested by examining the likely phenology of this species in the fossil record. Although phenology is difficult to derive directly from proxies, it can be estimated for past periods by models. Here we use an ecosystem modeling approach to investigate seasonal variations of N. pachyderma since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the North Atlantic. The model implies that the phenology of N. pachyderma during the LGM and the ensuing Heinrich Event 1 shifted by several months from the modern situation with a maximum seasonal production occurring later in the year (i.e. boreal summer). In comparison with the fossil records our model performs well in reproducing the observed abundance patterns and range shifts in the studied species during the last glacial period. Hence, the predicted large (and partly no-analog) shifts in the phenology of N. pachyderma are a plausible scenario. For instance, its maximum growth during Heinrich Event 1 in a region northeast of Newfoundland occurred during a part of the season where this species never peaks anywhere in the North Atlantic at present. Understanding the drivers of this change and knowing the potential adaptive space of phenology shifts are essential in predictions of plankton response to future global change scenarios.