Why Can't We Resolve Recruitment?

During the last century, Johan Hjort's work has lead to signicant advances in explaining anomalous year-classes within sheries science. However, distinguishing between the competing mechanisms of year-class regulation (e.g., food conditions, predation, transport) has proved challenging. We use blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) in the North-east Atlantic Ocean as a case study, which, during the late 1990s and early 2000s, generated year-classes up to nearly an order of magnitude higher than those seen before or after. There presently exists no models that can quantify past variations in recruitment for this stock. Using modern stock-statistical and observational tools, we catalog a range of environmentally-driven hypotheses relevant for recruitment of blue whiting, including physical and biogeographic conditions, phenology, parental effects and predation. We have run the analyses to test some hypotheses and results will be presented at the session.