When Does the Warmest Water Reach Greenland?

The warmest water reaching the east and west coast of Greenland is found between 200 and 600 m, in the warm Atlantic Water Layer (WL). Temperature changes within the WL have been highlighted as a possible cause of accelerated melting of tidewater glaciers and therefore are an important consideration for understanding global sea level rise. However, a limited number of winter observations of the WL have prohibited determining its seasonal variability. To address this, temperature data from Argo profiling floats, a range of sources within the World Ocean Database, and unprecedented coverage from marine-mammal borne sensors have been analyzed for the period 2002–2011. A significant seasonal range in temperature (~1-2°C) is found in the warm layer, in contrast to most of the surrounding ocean. The magnitude of the seasonal cycle is thus comparable with the 1990s warming that was associated with an increased melt rate in a marine terminating glacier of West Greenland. The phase of the seasonal cycle exhibits considerable spatial variability; with high-resolution ocean model trajectory analysis suggesting it is determined by the time taken for waters to be advected from the subduction site in the Irminger Basin. For western Greenland, the annual temperature maximum occurs near or after the turn of the calendar year. This is significant because a recent study suggested that it is in the non-summer months when fjord-shelf exchanges allow the WL to most strongly influence glacier melt rate. However this is also the time of the year when the WL is least well observed. It is therefore clear that year-round subsurface temperature measurements are still required for a complete description of the WL seasonality, and in particular to ensure that the ice-melting potential of the WL is not underestimated.