Do Climate Models Simulate the Right Sea Ice Trends for the Wrong Reasons?

Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, predict a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice cover. A number of recent studies have attributed this discrepancy in each hemisphere to natural variability. Here we examine sea ice changes during 1979-2013 in simulations from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project as well as the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find that after accounting for biases in the level of global warming in each simulation, the possibility that natural variability alone could explain the difference between models and observations becomes exceedingly small. This suggests instead that there is a systematic bias in the climate models or possibly the observations.