Satellite and Ocean Model Analysis of Thermal Conditions Affecting Coral Reefs in the Western Indian Ocean

Corals are thought to be one of the smallest yet most productive ecosystems in the world. They have great economic and ecological value, but are increasingly affected by anthropogenic, biological and physical threats, such as a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification due to an increase in CO₂ in the atmosphere, among other factors. Here, specific events are investigated that likely exerted significant stress on corals, focusing particularly on unusual climatic conditions in the Western Indian Ocean during the 2001 to 2007 period as reflected by anomalies in degree heating weeks, hotspots and SST. Anomalous conditions in subsurface temperatures and mixed layer depth across the Indian Ocean region are also examined. We do this by using monthly, year-to-date, and annual composites of twice-weekly 50-km satellite coral bleaching monitoring products from the NOAA Coral Reef Watch and complementing it with output from a high-resolution global ocean model hindcast (1948-2007) forced with observed atmospheric forcing. Two years stand out in our analysis for the satellite data and model output: 2003 and 2005 exhibit strong warming in the Western Indian Ocean and cooling in the East. To establish the physical mechanisms giving rise to the unusual conditions and hotspot origins in 2003 and 2005 we also evaluate regional circulation changes in the Western Indian Ocean.