Precursors of ENSO Events from 27 Years of Satellite Data
Our objective is to clarify the relative role of large-scale atmospheric forcing from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as tropical atmospheric noise and ocean background conditions in triggering different ENSO types, thus providing insights in the event predictability and possible lead times. We first examine whether large-scale extra-tropical wind precursors exist for the El Niño/La Niña events during the satellite era, and how they relate with the many proposed in the literature. We then consider Westerly Wind Bursts (WWBs) activity for different types of ENSO events, and its possible interplay with extra-tropical influences. Special attention is devoted to the evolution of equatorial Pacific conditions during 2014/2015, which is examined in the context of previous ENSO events.