Ecological and management implications of climate-driven changes in spatial and temporal distributions of marine species

Ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Maine have warmed rapidly over the past decade, and the seasonal cycle of temperatures has shifted towards earlier warming in the spring and later cooling in the fall. Warming temperatures have been associated with northward shifts in spatial distributions of many marine fish and invertebrate species in the region. In addition, changing phenology—particularly of migratory species—is also being observed. The rates at which species distributions change in space and time vary by species, and these differential rates have important implications for trophic interactions and fisheries. In this presentation, we will identify groups of species on the Northeast Shelf based on whether their distribution responses to warming temperatures lead, lag, or track temperature signals. Life history and population characteristics provide a basis for understanding how species cluster in these groups. Differential rates of changes in spatial and temporal distributions affect trophic interactions. American lobster provides one example of a prey species that may be affected by changes in the spatial distribution and migration phenology of its predators. Changes in natural mortality on important commercial species may affect fisheries by altering stock dynamics and allowable catch levels, but fisheries will also be affected by the need to change their fishing locations, times, or target species. Some of these fishery responses are already being observed in the Northeast, but many are constrained by the management system. Our presentation will conclude by identifying some ways in which fisheries management adjustments might help address issues of stock sustainability and fishery access for species that are experiencing climate-related distribution shifts.