Predicting drifter trajectories and particle dispersion in the Caribbean using a high resolution coastal ocean forecasting system

The present study discusses the accuracy of a high-resolution ocean forecasting system in predicting floating drifter trajectories and the uncertainty of modeled particle dispersion in coastal areas. Trajectories were calculated using an offline particle-tracking algorithm coupled to the operational model developed for the region of Puerto Rico by CariCOOS. Both, a simple advection algorithm as well as the Larval TRANSport (LTRANS) model, a more sophisticated offline particle-tracking application, were coupled to the ocean model. Numerical results are compared with 12 floating drifters deployed in the near-shore of Puerto Rico during February and March 2015, and tracked for several days using Global Positioning Systems mounted on the drifters. In addition the trajectories have also been calculated with the AmSeas Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). The operational model is based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with a uniform horizontal resolution of 1/100 degrees (1.1km). Initial, surface and open boundary conditions are taken from NCOM, except for wind stress, which is computed using winds from the National Digital Forecasting Database. Probabilistic maps were created to quantify the uncertainty of particle trajectories at different locations. Results show that the forecasted trajectories are location dependent, with tidally active regions having the largest error. The predicted trajectories by both the ROMS and NCOM models show good agreement on average, however both perform differently at particular locations. The effect of wind stress on the drifter trajectories is investigated to account for wind slippage. Furthermore, a real case scenario is presented where simulated trajectories show good agreement when compared to the actual drifter trajectories.