Coastal morphological change and inundation predictions due to tropical cyclones

Predictions of the peak, onset, and duration of inundation generated by tropical cyclones are necessary for the mustering of humanitarian assistance and disaster response teams. Typically, storm surge and inundation modeling neglects the often significant morphologic change that occurs during extreme storm events. Previous work has shown that using numerical models that couple only wave and circulation (neglecting morphologic change) underestimate the duration of inundation resulting from tropical cyclones. We hypothesize that inundation predictions would be improved by accounting for the effects of morphologic change below and above mean water level in the model hydrodynamics. This hypothesis is tested using the coupled Delft3D FLOW-WAVE-MOR model to make hydrodynamic and morphologic predictions at Galveston Bay, TX during Hurricane Ike. Additionally, we explore the effects of the terraqueous bottom roughness and rainfall on the predictions of the extent and duration of inundation. Model predictions of significant wave heights and water levels are compared to USGS and NDBC observations. Predictions of morphologic change are compared to measured post-storm bathymetry.