Evaluation of a Regional, High-Resolution, Arctic Sea Ice forecasts in support of 2015 Summer and Autumn U.S. Coast Guard and Office of Naval Research Operations.

David A Hebert1, Richard Allard2, Pamela G Posey3, William Rogers4, James D Dykes5, Shouping Wang6, Yi Jin7, Teddy Holt8, Ole Martin Smedstad2, Michael Phelps2 and Dan Geiszler7, (1)Navl Research Lab, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (2)Naval Research Lab, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (3)Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (4)US Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, United States, (5)Naval Research Laboratory SSC, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (6)Naval Research Lab Monterey, Monterey, CA, United States, (7)Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA, United States, (8)Naval Research Lab
Abstract:
The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), as part of the Regional Arctic Prediction component of the Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) program, has developed a regional, high resolution, Arctic modeling system to support U.S. Coast Guard and Office of Naval Research Arctic operations in the summer and autumn of 2015. The modeling system is composed of the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), the Community Ice CodE (CICE), and Wave Watch III (WW3). The system provided real-time, 72-hr forecasts of environmental conditions for the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas. The modeling components assimilate atmosphere, ocean and ice observations available from satellite and in situ sources. In this study, the 1-3 day sea ice forecasts are examined. Specifically, we compare modeled ice concentration, ice thickness, ice drift, and ice edge location with satellite, buoy, and ship observations. Results will also be compared to the U.S. Navy’s operational Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System, a two-way coupled ice-ocean system forced with NAVGEM atmospheric data.
Back to: Dynamics of the Arctic Ocean and Sea Ice System in a Changing Climate III Posters