Development of a GSI-Based, 2D-VAR Data Assimilation System for Operational Wave Guidance at the National Weather Service

The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) provides wave guidance to the National Weather Service (NWS) via a suite of operational wave models, which include three global-scale systems. An approach is being developed to include data assimilation into the global wave models using a 2D version of NCEP’s grid-point statistical interpolation (2D-GSI), as described in Derber & Rosatti (1989), and Pondeca et al (2011). As a first step to the global implementation of a wave DA system, a prototype is being developed that will consist of adding wave heights as an analysis variable to the operational Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA), which provides hourly analyses of several near sea-surface meteorological parameters, and supports a variety of applications within the NWS. The core of the RTMA is a 2D version of the GSI, which is a variational data assimilation system, and the first guess for the wave-height analysis is provided by NCEP’s global wave models. For the new application, the RTMA will be modified to reflect background error covariances consistent with wave-height fields for regional and nearshore applications. In addition, quality control modules for in situ and altimeter significant wave height have been developed and integrated into the system. The strengths and the performance of the 2D-GSI are illustrated with both in situ and satellite measurements of significant wave height in the NW Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. The validation of follows the typical cross-validation procedure of RTMA products, based on 10% of the observations, for a period of 15 days. The error statistics (mean, root-mean-square) of the wave-height analysis shows significant improvement, relative to the first guess.