The influence of decadal scale climactic events on the transport of larvae.

Understanding the processes that influence larval transport remains an important, yet difficult, task. This is especially true as more studies demonstrate that biological and physical oceanographic processes vary at long (e.g. decadal+) time scales. We used individual based biophysical models to study transport of Dungeness crab larvae (the most economically valuable fishery on the West Coast of the Continental United States) over a 10-year period; during both positive and negative phases of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). A physical oceanographic model of the California current was developed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System with 1/30-degree resolution. Measured and modeled PDO indices were positively correlated. The biological model was implemented using the Lagrangian Transport Model, and modified to incorporate temperature dependent development and stage specific behaviors. Super individuals were used to scale production and incorporate mortality. Models were validated using time series statistics to compare measured and modeled daily recruitment. More larvae recruited, in both our measured and modeled time series, during negative PDOs. Our work suggests larvae exhibit a vertically migratory behavior too or almost too the bottom each day. During positive PDO years larvae were competent to settle earlier than negative PDO years, however, pelagic larval durations did not differ. The southern end of the population appears to be a sink population, which likely explains the decline in commercial catch. Ultimately, the population is much more demographically closed than previously thought. We hypothesize the stronger flow in the California current during negative PDO’s enhances membership of larvae in the current. Further, migrating almost too the bottom causes larvae to enter the benthic boundary layer on the continental shelf and the California undercurrent on the continental slope, both, which decrease net alongshore advection. These factors result in a higher number of larvae closing their larval phase within the California current. We hypothesize Dungeness crabs have evolved to complete their larval phase within the oceanographic context of the California current and differences with the oceanography in the Alaska current may explain the difficulties in managing fisheries.