Connecting the dots in the Gulf of the Farallones: linking physical ocean conditions and nutrients to the ecological success of planktivorous predators

Nutrients are essential for phytoplankton to thrive and drive bottom-up forcing of ecosystem production. Upwelling of deep water from the shelf break delivers pulses of nutrients resulting in recurring blooms of phytoplankton and zooplankton in the Gulf of the Farallones (GoF) region of the California Current Ecosystem, supporting a diversity of pelagic predators. Anomalies in ocean conditions are often associated with booms and crashes of these predator populations, such as the recent mortality of thousands of Cassin’s Auklets. These anomalies are often associated with changes in physical conditions affecting the Pacific Ocean, as well as more localized physical conditions along the California coastline that drive nutrient availability, but the specific role of nutrients in driving the abundances of top predators has not been directly examined. Using a ten-year multivariate time series from the GoF, including nutrient concentrations, we test the hypothesis that nutrients regulate the abundance of plankton and planktivorous predators, as a result of physical forcing. Using path analysis we test alternate interaction webs, including the direct and indirect effects of physical and biological factors on pelagic predator abundances. Insights from this work may be useful to marine resource managers in understanding how future variability in ocean conditions may drive ecosystem conditions including the abundance of pelagic predators in the GoF Marine Sanctuary.