Ocean reanalyses and forecasts are nowadays generated by combining ensemble simulations with data assimilation techniques. Most of these techniques resample the ensemble members after each assimilation cycle. Tracking behavior over time, such as all possible paths of a particle in an ensemble vector field, becomes very difficult, as the number of combinations rises exponentially with the number of assimilation cycles. In general a single possible path is not of interest but only the probabilities that any point in space might be reached by a particle at some point in time. We present an approach using probability-weighted piecewise particle trajectories to allow for interactive probability mapping. This is achieved by binning the domain and splitting up the tracing process into the individual assimilation cycles, so that particles that fall into the same bin after a cycle can be treated as a single particle with a larger probability as input for the next cycle. As a result we loose the possibility to track individual particles, but can create probability maps for any desired seed at interactive rates.
The technique is integrated in an interactive visualization system that enables the visual analysis of the particle traces side by side with other forecast variables, such as the sea surface height, and their corresponding behavior over time. By harnessing the power of modern graphics processing units (GPUs) for visualization as well as computation, our system allows the user to browse through the simulation ensembles in real-time, view specific parameter settings or simulation models and move between different spatial or temporal regions without delay. In addition our system provides advanced visualizations to highlight the uncertainty, or show the complete distribution of the simulations at user-defined positions over the complete time series of the domain.
