Skillful Prediction of Barents Sea Ice Cover

The Arctic sea ice cover is a well-observed and sensitive indicator of climate variability and change. During winter the Arctic Ocean sea ice variability largely reflects variations in the Barents Sea ice cover. The ice loss is predominantly caused by increased Atlantic heat transport to the Barents Sea, through a warming and strengthening of the current. We propose and evaluate a simple quantitative and prognostic framework to predict the winter Barents Sea ice cover using recent observed ocean heat transport and sea ice area. Our proposed framework appears skillful and explains 50% of the observed sea ice variance up to two years in advance. The qualitative prediction of increase versus decrease in ice cover is correct 88% of the time, beating both persistence and linear trend predictions. Model imperfections can largely be diagnosed from simultaneous meridional winds. The framework and skill are further supported by a 60-year simulation from a regional ice-ocean model. We particularly predict that the winter Barents Sea ice cover for 2016 will be slightly less than in 2015.